Trainer Bjorn Baker saddles up five of the eight favourites at Orange on Monday and the question must be asked – can we make money investing on runners from the Baker stable?
Looking at the period from January 2013 through September 2017 Baker has saddled up 69 runners at Orange for 23 winners, that's a healthy winning strike rate of 33.3 percent but even with such a high win percentage backing each of Baker's runners at Orange returns a $1 overall loss.
No joy overall but an excellent starting point – the $1 loss means we only needed to eliminate one of Baker's 69 runners to return a profit.
If we just consider Baker-trained favourites we move into profitable territory.
38 favourites for 19 winners and a $10 profit ($1 stake) or a 27 percent return on investment – who said you can't make money backing favourites.
Backing favourites is the quickest and simplest way to profitability in punting but I will make that case another day.
One other factor is prominent analysing Baker's statistics at Orange – last start winners as favourites.
Nine of Baker's favourites were last start winners and six returned to the winner's stall – 66 percent, a $7.50 profit and an 83 per cent return on investment.
Far better being on Baker-trained runners than betting against them and two of our three bets on Monday are last start winners from the stable.
FREE WAY (Race 5 No 2)
The Baker-trained Freeway is chasing his third win from six starts and a back to back victory when the four-year-old lines up in the Kennards Class 3 Handicap – Heat Of The Rising Star (1280m).
Free Way could be best described as a work in progress- he wants to hang in his races but has been able to win two country races despite still learning his craft.
Free Way has the potential to be a city-class galloper when he puts it all together but Baker is happy to work through the grades on country tracks in the short term.
The stable has that wonderful ability to be able to place horses in winnable races and that's the case again on Tuesday.
CAPPELLA MAGNA (Race 6 No 2)
Capella Magic is chasing a hat-trick of wins for Baker in the Spanline Benchmark 55 Handicap (1400m) after a maiden win at Bathurst resuming on September 19 before successfully handling the step up to class one company in fillies and mares grade at Nowra last start.
Capella Magic must overcome a 2.5kg weight rise after the claim for Jean Van Overmeire but is well treated going from a class one to a benchmark race.
Nothing at all to suggest Capella Magna won't be winning again.
STORM FORCE (Race 8 No 5)
Storm Force was having his first run for Greg and Kelly Gooch at Cootamundra last start and won like the good thing he looked on paper.
Storm Force was formerly trained by Team Hawkes and took provincial and city form to Cootamundra winning in a manner that suggests there are more wins in store as he progresses through the grades.
The figures produced from the Cootamundra win compared more than favourably with the class three winner on the day over the same journey which augers well for Storm Forces prospects in the Broadly & Hayden Class 1 Handicap (1000m).
