There’s a group of horses that are a profitable punting proposition when racing at Hawkesbury and we’ve identified a couple that fit into the category on Thursday.
The winning strike rate of last start metropolitan runners stands at 38 percent at Hawkesbury and that is a significant factor in finding a winner at the provincial track but we need to do much more to be profitable with an average 2.5 runners per race.
The younger horses are the key with two and three-year olds having a similar strike rate of 36 percent but importantly concentrating on this age group sees a two percent profit on turnover.
If we want to go further, only investing on the younger horses that are prominent in betting improves the strike rate and profitability further.
Two and three-year-olds that are in the top two in betting lift the winning strike rate to 39 percent with a four percent profit on turnover.
Two and three-year-olds with metropolitan form head our best bets at Hawkesbury on Thursday.
GROUNDBREAK (Race 3 No 7)
Groundbreak is a three-year-old son of All Too Hard who gets the chance for a confidence boosting win in the Campari Maiden Plate (1300m) for Team Hawkes.
Groundbreak has been to the races on four occasions with each of the runs on city tracks including a length second to Veranillo on debut at Rosehill in his only first preparation outing before contesting Stakes races both runs in his second preparation finishing fourth in the Talindert Stakes at Flemington before finishing down the track in the Group II Sires' Produce Stakes at the same track.
Groundbreak did enough resuming from a spell in a benchmark 73 at Canterbury finishing just over three-lengths from Super Ex to suggest he will take a power of beating back to a provincial set-weight maiden.
SEAGLASS (Race 6 No 4)
Strictly speaking the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained Seaglass didn’t have her last run on a metropolitan track but her two outings in her first preparation included a close fifth at Randwick on debut before winning a Canterbury maiden and the three-year-old daughter of Sebring was a strong winner at Newcastle resuming.
Seaglass looks a filly capable of working through the grades and the extra 100m won’t be an issue on Thursday – expecting her to make it three wins from five starts when she lines up in the Jacob’s Creek Prosecco Spritz F&M Class 2 Handicap (1300m).
ALL FROM SCRAP (Race 7 No 3)
All From Scrap from the David Atkins stable at Newcastle looks well placed in the McWilliams Hanwood CG&E Class 2 Handicap (1300m).
All from Scrap is a consistent four-year-old with wins at Port Macquarie and Beaumont in his seven starts finishing in the placings an additional four times.
All From Scrap resuming at Wyong finishing second after sitting wide in the run without cover before finishing third at Canterbury last start and should be right at his peak for Thursday’s assignment.
