Punters shouldn't be concerned about maiden winners going to class one – it's a racing myth easily debunked and we will put it to the test at Grafton on Tuesday.
Commentators continually tell punters how hard it is to go from a maiden to a class one with only about 14 percent winning but how true is that statistic?
We have used this example in the past but it still holds true, Chris Waller has a career winning strike rate as a trainer less than 15 percent but he wins substantially more races than the strike rate suggests – Why, because he has consistently multiple runners in a race which drags his strike rate down.
It's the same with maidens going to class one, it is a regular occurrence to see multiple last start winners contesting class ones, last start maiden victors win more than 30 per cent of maidens they contest.
Sure, there are plenty of horses that can win a maiden but are simply not good enough to progress through the grades and that's the key factor, if you see something in a win that suggests a horse has above-average ability they are invariably good bets steeping up to a class one and a last-start maiden winner heads our three best bets for Grafton on Tuesday.
CAMILLO (Race 7 No 1)
The David Kelly-trained Camillo was an impressive maiden at Grafton on September 14 resuming from a spell leading all the way and racing away in the straight to win by over three-lengths and with four races over the same journey on the day times gives us a decent guide as to the merit of the performance.
Camillo was the quickest of the four winners over the 1106m journey breaking 1:04 running close to three-lengths quicker than the second quickest time.
Connections thought enough of Camillo to test him in Stakes Company at Doomben in his second career start and whilst he wasn't up to the higher level at that stage of his career I am extremely confident he is better than a class one horse and will prove that on Tuesday despite stepping up in distance in the Yoohoomcphee.Com.Au Class 1 Handicap.
FERNIEHIRST (Race 2 No 5)
Barrier one gives the Paul Smith-trained Ferniehirst the edge in the Yoohoo McPhee Class 2 Handicap (1106m).
Ferniehirst was outclassed in a strong class 3 Highway Handicap won by Suncraze with Don't Give A Damn second but showed plenty of speed to share the lead straightening before weakening over the latter stages.
Back to a class two on Tuesday launching from the inside gate Ferniehirst gets the chance to return to the winner's list.
EVERYDAY LADY (Race 4 No 9)
Everyday Lady from the Steven O'Dea stable is another that looks advantaged by a rails barrier draw.
Everyday Lady resumes in the McPhee Print F&M Maiden Plate (1006m) after finishing in the placings at Murwillumbah and the Sunshine Coast both runs in her first preparation.
Everyday Lady takes on the older mare but gets in on the limit and a runner-up finish in a Doomben trial on September 9 run in solid time suggests the filly is primed for a first-up win.
