I'm teeing up most of my shots at Caulfield this weekend where I'm keen on a few at nice odds and one I reckon is a really good thing.
Was out to 1800m for the first time and most impressive charging home to beat the girls in a benchmark 76 at this track when carrying 57.5kg (allowing for the claim). Following that went to Canterbury and wasn't suited around the tight track over 1900m so a totally forget run. She's back at headquarters here and despite being up in grade does get the benefit of a 1.5kg claim for Rachel King she'll only carry 54kg. Will be giving away a start, as is her style but look for her to be produced late and hit the line powerfully.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS: $15 @ Bet365
FALIKA (Caulfield Race 2 No 14)
Pure speculator this one as the mare is far from ideally placed against this lot but she does have a ton of upside and has progressed rapidly over the past 8-9 months. Won three-straight between 1600m and 2080m then a brave second at Caulfield over 2000m in a four-run stint last December-January. Latest run only had the single outing over 1400m and hit the line powerfully in a benchmark 70 at Ballarat and would have won in a couple more bounds. She's giving away a massive amount of ratings points to most rivals but against that she's lightly raced (9-3-2-1), is in the right yard with Greg Eurell and should get a soft run from the inside gate so worth a small dabble as we may not get these odds again about a nice up-and-coming mare.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS: $51 @ Sportsbet ($81 Power Play)
FUHRYK (Caulfield Race 5 No 2)
High quality mare ideally placed in this company and if David Hayes has mentioned her as a possible stable representative in The Everest she'll be beating these. Has an outstanding strike rate winning five-from-nine and there have been excuses along the way including the fact she didn't run the 1600m when failing in the Australian Guineas behind Hey Doc when leading. After a debut failure at Sandown her record (without the Guineas) reads (7-5-1-0) and she could well have won all seven of those starts. She's won five from seven at 1200m, with a desperately unlucky second in the Group II Euclase Stakes at Morphettville as well. No flash odds but all the same I reckon Fuhryk still represents enough value for a good thing!
BET: WIN
ODDS: $3.30 @ Sportsbet ($3.60 Power Play)
TIAMO GRACE (Caulfield Race 8 No 13)
Had something on this mare when resuming in an unsuitable race and she looked like getting into it before peaking on her run late over 1400m at Caulfield behind Here To There. The Darren Weir trained four-year-old is now out to a more suitable 1700m and I wouldn't be surprised to see her stamp herself as a real spring contender with a big run in this. Very lightly raced with only six starts to her name but progressed through the grades last spring turning in a real eye-catcher when second to Eleonora in the Group III Ethereal Stakes before taking her game to another level when charging away to win the Group II Wakeful Stakes at Flemington. She's a classy type and expecting a big run here at succulent odds.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS: $26 @ Sportsbet ($29 Power Play), William Hill ($29 Price Pump)
SNITZSON (Caulfield Race 9 No7)
Have to again stick with this favourite of mine. Thought he was well short of a run when weakening out of it behind Hey Doc over 1200m at Flemington when resuming. Stablemate Grande Rosso was enormous in that race and runs again here but he's a $2.60 chance, and deservedly so while with the William HillPrice Pump we can get as much as $11 about Snitzson. Before going for a break Snitzson was an unlucky third behind Hey Doc in the Group I Australian Guineas so he does have plenty of class about him. Add to that the fact second-up last preparation he was most impressive winning over 1400m at Pakenham and out to that distance here I'm anticipating he'll prove very hard to hold out.
BET: WIN
ODDS: $8.50 @ William Hill ($11 Price Pump)
