There are three form factors that come before anything else when I start to analyse a race these days and they all come together in me wanting to take on a favourite at Gosford on Thursday.
Every punter has their own way of analysing form, for me three things come before anything else.
The corporate betting markets, speed maps and statistics.
The early favourite in Corporate betting is the first horse I look at.
Do I agree with the Bookie's assessment?
Year in year out favourites win one in three races and the top three in betting win about 65 per cent of races so in my opinion the betting markets are a good place to start.
As Racenet's Speed Map Analyst for the last 12-years I believe I have an edge on most punters in regards to the maps and they are a significant part of my analysis of a race.
Statistics are not everyone's cup of tea but they do give a historical aspect to the race form I am analysing.
Here's an insight as to how the three form factors come together for my assessment of the Forresters Beach Retirement Village F&M Benchmark 66 Handicap (1100m).
The Gary Portelli-trained Express Point is the early favourite with Sportsbet at $3.40.
Express Point has won three races in her 34-start career with each of the victories coming at Gosford and has been placed in metropolitan races at her latest two outings and I can see why she is prominent in betting but her overall winning strike rate and the fact she has missed a place the last three times she has raced at Gosford are red flags for me.
Let's have a look at how the race may pan out from a speed map perspective.
Express Point generally takes up a forward position in running.
Evonne's Magic drawn inside here will be right on the speed with Saskia Rose and Feature drawn further out likely to push forward.
There is a high probability Evonne's Magic will settle a length or two further back than would be ideal.
What do the stats say?
Favourites over the 1100m at Gosford lose 11.9 per cent of turnover but if the favourite jumps from barriers 1-3 the favourites go from a loss situation to a 4.3 per cent profit on turnover so no positive there with the speed map and the stats suggesting barrier five is at best neutral for Express Point but certainly not an advantage.
The work on the early favourite, speed map and stats are telling me that Express Point is well under the odds and herein lies the key to successful punting.
Whichever way a punter goes about analysing a race they must arrive at a price of a horse that they are prepared to invest their hard earned.
There are many ways to analyse form and I wouldn't argue with anyone else's view but there is one truism in racing – you will NOT and I repeat NOT win if as a punter you consistently take under the odds.
I may well be wrong in my assessment of Express Point – It's a sobering thought even the best tipsters (and I don't include myself in that category) are wrong more than they are right but if you are consistent in the way you approach a race and under no circumstances take under the odds you are some way towards making a profit in an extremely tough game.
At $3.80 Express Point occupies 30 per cent of the betting market and with the way markets are constructed there must value around the other horses.
In theory, we could invest on every other horse and win but that's assuming we are going to be right all the time and we know that will not be the case.
The value for mine lies in the Clarry Connors-trained Saskia Road who will be fitter second-up after finishing runner-up at Beaumont resuming and did win her maiden by a big space second-up last preparation and Evonnne's Magic from the Gary Nickson stable at Warwick Farm who is drawn to get the gun run in transit from barrier three.
