Heavy forecast rain has left the door slightly ajar for the Mark Newnham-trained Burning Passion to run in Saturday's Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield.
Burning Passion is one of 29 nominations for the Regal Roller Stakes but Newnham said the six-year-old was almost certain to compete in the Show County Quality at Saturday's Randwick meeting.
However, the Bureau of Meteorology has forecast falls of up to 25mm for Melbourne between Tuesday and Saturday, which prevented Newnham from ruling out a trip to Melbourne with Burning Passion.
"It's probably unlikely that he will go down there," Newnham said.
"He's a really good wet tracker and I may be swayed by the weather. I would say it's still unlikely but you never know."
Burning Passion won races in Brisbane in May and June, including the Group III Healy Stakes at Doomben two starts back, before going down by a half-length in the Listed Winter Stakes at Rosehill at his last outing.
Newnham kept up Burning Passion's fitness with a quiet trial at Randwick on August 8 and the Randwick trainer thinks the son of Northern Meteor's condition advantage could help him against higher-rated runners on Saturday.
"He races best when he's fresh and in the race at Rosehill, he had a tough run three-wide on the speed and he got beaten a length so he went pretty well," Newnham said.
"He's going well so it's just a matter of where he is now as a 100-rater, he's really now in that Group III and Listed grade.
"At least a horse like him that has raced through the winter, has got a fitness edge on those better horses returning so this is his chance to catch those horses when they're not at their best."
Newnham said he would accept with Francesco in the Benchmark 90 Handicap (1400m) at Randwick after he scratched the gelding from a race at Rosehill last Saturday because of a wide barrier.
