Greg Polson previews Wagga Sunday August 13

Greg Polson - Monday August 14

Punters could do a lot worse than have something on a $21 chance in the feature sprint at Wagga on Sunday.

The Chris Heywood-trained Ketchum will be chasing his ninth career win from 21-starts when he lines up in the Riverina Plaster Works 2017 Wagga Whiz (1000m) on Sunday.

Ketchum has an impressive record at Wagga with six of his career wins coming at home over the 1000m journey and with a wet track likely on Sunday six of the wins have been on soft and heavy ground.

Why is Ketchum a $21 chance?

Ketchum hasn't fired in two runs back from a break which looks the significant factor in such a big price being offered on Sunday but there were genuine excuses in each of the runs.

Ketchum finished fourth at Corowa resuming and the comments from Racenet's video analyst tell the tale.

"Caught 3WNC leader's heels. Hung badly on t and was close to outside rail losing many lengths. Once balanced-up ROS but damage done on t".

It would pay to completely ignore Ketchum's last start effort when down the track at Wagga over an unsuitable 1200m.

Again the Racenet video comments are self-explanatory.

"Sat 3WNC O/L. Just battled last 200m after wide run".

1200m is not Ketchum's go and punters should completely ignore the run.

Richard Bensley took over from an apprentice at Wagga and in my opinion connections had their eye firmly on Sunday's race at Wagga back to 1000m.

Many times when analysing horse races we add two and two together and come up with five.

Racing has to be the only sport in the world where "experts" are wrong more than they are right.

Odds are the key, at $21 the odds are lucrative enough to see if this analyst is right or wrong.

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