The Group I VRC Victoria Derby at Flemington on Saturday is worth a whopping $2 million and the testing trip of 2500m means a lot of horses are not going to see it out strongly and this looks a competitive year with no G1 winners engaged and a full field of up and comers set to do battle, so let’s see what the pedigrees have to say.
1. Observer (Ghaiyyath (IRE) x Smooth, by Lonhro) Ciaron Maher / Mark Zahra (4)
Favourite and was impressive last start winner of G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) after third in G1 Caulfield Guineas, so has a class edge over the entire field.
From first crop of 2020 European Horse of the Year Ghaiyyath, who came to his full potential late in life as a 5YO and was a G1 winner at 2400m. His unraced dam is a sister Champion 2YO Pierro, who has proved to be a very good Classic sire and the roots of this female family are European with grand-dam Miss Right Note a half-sister to 2400m G1 winner Laverock.
Has a 4 x 4 double cross of Sadler’s Wells offering another tick on the score of staying blood and it’s hard not to see him in the finish.
2. Highvol (Microphone x Aspenet, by Hussonet (USA)) Nick Ryan / Jamie Mott (15)
Stakes-winner at two in Listed VRC Anzac Day Stakes (1400m) and after failing in Caulfield Guineas from a wide gate bounced back for second in Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
The only stakes-winner by a pretty dreadful stallion in Microphone, who has duly been banished to South America and is from an unraced half-sister to sprinting SW Lord Aspen, who is the only other SW in first four generations of this family.
I’m not feeling the vibe and Highvol probably won’t be either at the business end of this.
3. Autumn Mystery (The Autumn Sun x Stop Making Sense, by Sebring) Rory Hunter / Blake Shinn (17)
Has won his past two starts in VRC Derby Preview (1800m) and then the G3 MRC Sportsbet Classic (2000m) after two second placings in maidens.
By Champion 3YO The Autumn Sun, who won to 2000m and probably would have won a Derby had he been given the chance and has already produced three G1 Classic winners as a sire. Dam was a speedy G3 placed daughter of Sebring, but does come from a top class and versatile Kiwi female family that can produce sprinters and stayers.
Has improved out of every start he’s had this season and if he does that again will be in the mix.
4. Miewa (Maurice (JPN) x Lady Cumquat, by Duke Of Marmalade (IRE)) Nick Ryan / Jordan Childs (8)
One win from seven starts over 1600m at Moonee Valley then second in Listed VRC Super Impose (1800m) and G3 Sportsbet Classic (2000m).
By the same sire as VRC Derby winner Hitotsu and female pedigree screams Classic contender with his dam Lady Cumquat a G3 winner up to 2000m and half-sister to NZ Horse of the Year Bonneval, who won both Australian Oaks and NZ Oaks, Melbourne Cup runner-up Champagne also on the page.
Pedigree does give rise to significant optimism!
5. Options (Impending x Alternatively (GB), by New Approach (IRE)) T and C McEvoy / Harry Coffey (7)
Has won three from five including Listed VRC Super Impose (1800m) and last start fifth in G1 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
His sire Impending a G1 winner to 1400m and his progeny have proven to be largely sprinter milers like their sire, although this guy is from an imported mare by Epsom Derby winner New Approach from a family with Australian roots as third dam Danelagh won a Blue Diamond, but did produce a couple of G1 winning stayers when mated with Zabeel in Vengeance of Rain and Dizelle.
That female family will carry him a long way, so if you like him I’m not knocking him.
6. Providence (Wootton Bassett (GB) x Southbank, by Fastnet Rock) Chris Waller /Craig Williams(12)
Still surprisingly a maiden after eight starts, but produced best effort of his career last run when late closing second in G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
By the late Wootton Bassett, who is on track to be the Champion Sire of Europe in 2025 and plenty of his NH winners are horses that run over ground with place-getters in both the Epsom Derby and Oaks this year. His G1 placed dam is from G3 winner Rezoned, who won up to 2500m and is a sister to Victoria Derby winner Preferment.
Pedigree and type definitely say Derby and as we have seen in the past a maiden can definitelywin this race.
7. Azazel (NZ) (Shocking x Alagant Angel (NZ), by Tavistock (NZ)) Mark W Walker / Michael Dee (10)
Two wins from just three starts, debut 1600m maiden win at Seymour then fourth Listed Super Impose (1800m) and last start win in the Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
By Melbourne Cup winning sire Shocking from a mare by renowned staying sire Tavistock from G2 winner Alagant Satin, who is by Al Akbar, a stallion that was otherwise pretty unremarkable apart from the fact he sired the dam of Winx! Going back this pedigree is a lesson in Kiwi stamina with the next two dams by Noble Bijou and Mellay.
Bred to run two miles, so Derby trip should be a walk in the park!
8. Arcora (Justify (USA) x Casuarina Forest, by Fastnet Rock) T and N Busuttin and Young / John Allen (11)
One win from eight starts came at final run as a juvenile winning over 1800m at Flemington and was last start cluttered fifth in Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
By versatile sire in Kentucky Derby winner Justify, who won up to 2400m and has sired winners of Epsom Derby and English St Leger. Half-brother to G3 placed Foxy Cleopatra from a full sister to G1 winner sprinter/ sire Foxwedge and speed SW She’s a Fox from a female family that leans towards speed.
In a stable that consistently gets horses into this race and invariably they run OK, although he would have to jump out of the ground to win and I can’t see that.
9. O'sheamus (Shamus Award x O'reilly's Angel (NZ), by O'reilly (NZ)) J and T O'Shea and Charlton / Kerrin McEvoy (5)
One win from five starts breaking through in a Warwick Farm maiden over 1600m and then third in G2 Moonee Valley Vase.
By Cox Plate winning sire Shamus Award that has proven a great sire of stayers and is from a Kiwi family, although this one is mostly about the sprinter milers with third dam Society Bay, winner of G2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m). That said, the Shamus Award x O’Reilly nick has produced G1 Australian Oaks winner El Patroness, so take that as a plus.
Last start was good, so if you put your trust in the sire and the trainers, who are proven at the trip, he could be your knock out horse with good gate and champion jockey.
10. Amazake (Maurice (JPN) x Diminish, by Fastnet Rock) Ciaron Maher / Declan Bates (6)
Another maiden with five starts and best effort came last start when a close third in G3 MRC Sportsbet Classic (2000m).
Second in the race by Maurice although this one lacks the staying female pedigree on the dam side as he is from an unraced half-sister to Champion Sprinter Buffering, whose 20 wins never extended beyond 1300m.
Can probably find something a lot easier in which to break his maiden.
11. Engine Of War (NZ) (Circus Maximus (IRE) x Prove Your Worth, by Lonhro) M G and M Price and Kent / Tommy Berry (9)
Four starts for a maiden win over 1500m at Sandown, then second in VRC Derby Preview (1800m) and last start seventh in G3 Sportsbet Classic (2000m).
From first crop of Galileo sire Circus Maximus, who was a G1 winning miler and while this fellow was bred in New Zealand his female family is all Aussie with his grand-dam Kiss from a Rose a sprint SW and she is also the grand-dam of G1 winning sprinting mare Palaisipan with the family most famous for producing influential sire Northern Meteor and also another G1 sire in Smart Missile.
Am thinking this fast female family will catch up with him well before the winning post.
12. Matsuda (Maurice (JPN) x Courtesan (NZ), by Mastercraftsman (IRE)) Ciaron Maher / Thomas Stockdale (19)
Five starts for one win in a Sale maiden at 1744m and last start fourth in Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
Third in the race for Maurice and this one is bred to stay all day being from a half-sister to Victoria Derby winner Monaco Consul with the family also producing top class dual G1 winner Military Plume, who also placed in a couple of Derbies. Second and third dams by Kiwi staying household names Star Way and In the Purple.
He’s pretty one paced, but am tipping what he’s doing at the top of the straight is what he’ll be doing near the finish.
13. One Step Closer (Castelvecchio x Get Closer (JPN), by Wild Rush (USA)) J and T O'Shea and Charlton / Jye McNeil (2)
One win from six starts came in a Goulburn 1500m maiden, then was unplaced in G3 ATC Gloaming Stakes (1800m) and last start fourth in G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040m).
Castelvecchio already sire of Australian Derby winner Aeliana and Spring Champion Stakes winner El Castello, so that’s a plus and Japanese bred dam a half-sister to a couple of G3 winners up to 2100m.
Pedigree puts him in the picture, although will need to take a quantum leap in form to win.
14. Savisanta (NZ) (Savabeel x Not Santa (NZ), by Makfi (GB)) Chris Waller / Ben Melham (3)
Another lightly raced maiden that hasn’t missed a place in four starts and was a late closing third in the Listed Geelong Classic (2200m).
By champion sire Savabeel, who has sired his share of Derby and Oaks winners and is from a top class versatile Kiwi female family that has produced a mix of sprinter miler and middle distance horses.
Improved sharply last start with step up in trip and could easily improve again.
15. Mcwoody (Alabama Express x Queen Ouija, by Street Cry (IRE)) Mark W Walker / Jamie Melham (16)
Least experienced runner with just two starts for debut win at Wodonga over 1500m and then good run when close fifth in G3 MRC Sportsbet Classic (2000m) as he loomed up and couldn’t quite go on with it, which was probably more lack of experience than stamina.
Bred and sold as a yearling by Yulong and is bred on the exact same cross as their dual Oaks winner Treasurethe Moment and also like her, he is from a European female family that involves Sadlers Wells.
McWoody has a pedigree that is extremely similar to Treasurethe Moment and while this race may have come up a bit quick for him, I am keen to see him again in the autumn.
16. Deal Done Fast (Dundeel (NZ) x Fast Susan, by Fastnet Rock) Matt Cumani / Daniel Stackhouse (1)
Three start maiden who was second at Ballarat and then fourth at past two runs in VRC Derby Preview (1800m) and G3 MRC Sportsbet Classic (2000m).
By outstanding classic type sire Dundeel and is from an unraced half-sister by champion sire Fastnet Rock to Aussie bred South African Horse of the Year Oh Susanna (winner up to 2000m) from US bred G2 winner Fast Susan. This is an outstanding international family that has produced G1 winners all over the world including imported stayer Foundry (Galileo), who won the G1 ATC The Metropolitan.
One of the strongest in this race on pedigree, so won’t be shocked to see him run some sort of race.
TIPS
1/ Providence
2/ Observer
3/ Miewa
4/ Azazel
Roughie
O'Sheamus
