Historical data can be a useful tool in finding feature race winners and Racenet has drilled down through past results of Caulfield’s four Group I races this weekend to come up with some real value possibilities.
CAULFIELD STAKES
·Favourites have a strong record – 11 winners and only four unplaced from last 22 starters
·Underwood Stakes superior form race – eight winners have completed the double since 2000
·Of the last 17 winners, only Ocean Park, Atlantic Jewel, So You Think, Lonhro, and Northerly (all champions) had not previously won beyond 2000m
·Damien Oliver is aiming to become most successful jockey in race's history shooting for his fifth win – rides Taj Mahal ($15)
·Only one winner has jumped from barrier one since 1983
Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? No.11. Bonneval ($3.10 Luxbet)
CAULFIELD GUINEAS
·Most recent filly to win – Surround (1976)
·Only four winners since 2000 had won a Group I during the previous season at two
·Stan Fox Stakes has provided the last three winners but is now held two weeks before the Golden Rose – a race which now shapes as the likely superior formline for the future
·Last six winners have been NSW-trained
·Since 1991 only two winners finished further back than fourth at their previous start
Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? No.7. Gold Standard ($11 William Hill)
THOUSAND GUINEAS
·Edward Manifold Stakes has provided 50 percent of the winners since 1998
·Flight Stakes is two weeks before this year and provides an ideal lead-up (compared to seven and 10-day gaps in previous years)
·This year sees the smallest field assembled (8) since the race became a Group I in 1979
·Favourites have been unplaced four of the last six years
·Of the last 10 winners, only Serious Speed (2007) won deeper than the fifth run of a preparation
Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? 4. Pure Scot ($31 Centrebet)
TOORAK HANDICAP
·Only two winners have started from a barrier outside of 12 since 1983.
·There have been four topweight winners in the last seven years while 15 of the last 21 winners have carried 55kg or more
·Disregard last start performances. Winners previous runs have ranged from 1st to 16th since 1994 – despite most coming out of the 1400m Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes which is run under the same handicap conditions at the same track
·32 of the last 33 winners had either won or placed at 1600m
·Every winner since 1991 had previous experience at Caulfield
Based on the above data which runner is the most attractive betting proposition? 1. Tosen Stardom ($12 Ladbrokes)
