I'm confident I can conquer The Everest on Saturday and on what looks a terrific program will also be trying to fill my hiking boots with plenty of winners.
PUMPKIN PIE (Randwick Race 4 No 8)
Beaten 3-3/4 lengths at weight-for-age behind In Her Time/English/Clearly Innocent in the Group II Premiere Stakes (1200m) would appear the right kind of form to give the Sydney Stakes a nudge. But who would have thought it was the formline of a horse heading into the TAB Anniversary Highway (1400m). Pumpkin Pie has so much depth to her form that the $4.60 on offer is just too tempting. Last campaign ran fourth behind Foxplay in the Group II Phar Lap Stakes. Her form this time around includes a two lengths defeat by Isorich and a three lengths loss to Tango Rain. I know he's been getting beaten and that is never ideal, but I can't allow these formlines to get through to the keeper. Did I mention Pumpkin Pie is trained by Danny Williams and to be ridden by Hugh Bowman – from gate two. I'm betting up.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.40 @ Ladbrokes, Neds, CrownBet, Bet365, William Hill, Unibet,
AUVRAY (Randwick Race 6 No 6)
In a race where most of these stayers are either out of form or mixing their form, I'm stepping into a stayer that is in career best form – Auvray. Richard Freedman is airborne with his stable and Auvray has won two of his past three starts, finishing runner-up in the Newcastle Cup in between. Fought it out to win the Colin Stephen (2400m) here last time and looked set to do another lap on the line. A good track is ideal, he'll run the trip and as much as I concede there are some stronger formlines coming into this race – I can't bring myself to take the shorter odds about those horses. Nope, I'm backing the hard fit, in form stayer.
BET: WIN
ODDS $8 @ CrownBet, Bet365
IN HER TIME (Randwick Race 7 No 12)
This mare would have been a live chance in The Everest so she is definitely the horse to beat in the consolation. Knocked over English and Clearly Innocent at weight-for-age when resuming in the Premiere and her form prior to that was outstanding. Has the tactical pace to take up a position and she just keeps getting better with every run. Meets Impending 3kg better for a neck defeat in the Stradbroke and although the market has found her well on top – I have to agree. She should be winning.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.90 @ Luxbet
REDZEL (Randwick Race 8 No 3)
The ability to absorb pressure has me sticking with Redzel in The Everest. He's been my pick from a long way out and I can't see any reason to abandon ship now. He's got the right gate, right jockey, right trainers and he's already a Group I weight-for-age winner at 1200m. This is expected to be a high-pressure affair and if it indeed turns out that way, Redzel can absorb that pressure and still zip home in fast sectionals – making it tough for the backmarkers to catch him. But if the speed maps are askew, and the on-pace runners get any soft sectionals through the mid-stages – the backmarkers won't be catching Redzel. That's why he has been my pick from a long way out and he is still my top pick on Saturday. And if it happens to rain – (Redzel is a mudder). Main danger – Clearly Innocent.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $7.50 @ Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Neds, CrownBet, Luxbet, Bet365, William Hill, PalmerBet, Unibet
MACHINEGUN JUBS (Randwick Race 10 No 8)
Been waiting for this mare to return and Angela Davies has found the right race. A pressure-packed 1000m dash will set this up for something that can camp just off the pace and Machinegun Jubs fits the bill, especially off gate three with Hugh Bowman aboard. Finished runner-up behind Bonny O'Reilly last campaign when recording the fastest sectionals of the day. Trialled-up strongly here leading into this and at the current odds looks a great way to round out The Everest program.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5.50 @ Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Neds, CrownBet, Luxbet, Bet365, William Hill, PalmerBet, Unibet
