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Top bets from Paul Joice for Wednesday

Paul Joice - Tuesday October 10

Midweek racing is at Warwick Farm on Wednesday and I’m confident of turning a profit.

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Some Spring Champion Stakes form comes into play at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Photo: Steve Hart

THEWAYWEARE (Warwick Farm Race 3 No 1)
 John Thompson is a trainer with the knack of allowing stayers to build up their fitness over the shorter courses then striking some form over the longer journeys. Last campaign, Thewayweare won at his fourth, sixth and seventh run into his campaign. Put the writing on the wall fourth-up this prep when a fighting runner-up around this route nine days ago. Goes up 3.5kg so has to shoulder the 60.5kg but importantly drops back from Benchmark 80 to Benchmark 75 grade. Main danger Know How is tackling the 2200m for the first time (always a risk) whilst his next biggest danger is Wine Bush (won 1 from 16). Leads for in-form Tye Angland and I don’t think they’ll get past him.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.40 @Sportsbet ($4.90 PowerPlay)

ALLITERATE (Warwick Farm Race 4 No 3)
So much to like about Alliterate here. A soft draw and lack of pressure should find this four-year-old mare enjoying all the on-pace favours. She always takes a few runs to reach her peak so it was no surprise that fourth-up was when she clocked-up a victory this time around. All five career wins have been on good ground and those are the conditions expected on Wednesday. And even though she rises 5.5kg off her last start win, she drops from a Benchmark 77 (F&M) to a Benchmark 70 (F&M). All her rivals are basically Class 3 horses or below so she does look ideally placed.
BET: WIN
ODDS – $6 @ Sportsbet ($6.80 PowerPlay)

TUMULTUOUS (Warwick Farm Race 7 No 10)
 Chris Waller has replaced Ryoya Kozaki with Hugh Bowman after Tumultuous resumed at Rosehill with a flashing-light performance when third behind Mapmaker over 1500m. That was on the back of two eye-catching trials so it’s fair to say this four-year-old has come back in terrific order. A winner of only two from 16 but did finish less then a half-length off the winner in the Gloaming Stakes as a three-year-old and was only beaten four lengths in the Spring Champion Stakes of that season. The mile suits here second-up, especially off a soft gate with genuine speed expected up front. Looks a good thing.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.80 @ Luxbet

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