$1.40 looks way too short for a Toowoomba three-year-old in the opening race of the day so do we leave the race alone or try to make something out of it?
The Ben Hull-trained Mighty Mittere is a $1.40 chance in early betting for the Tallai Country Golf Club CG&E Maiden Plate (1010m).
There is no doubt Mighty Mittere rates as one of the key chances in the race finishing in the placings at the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich in two of his three starts to date but the short quote seems to be based on the fact gelding won a race at the Sunshine Coast on April 30 and was subsequently disqualified.
Mighty Mittere led and held on to win, so yes, the horse in theory is already a maiden winner but the quality of the race must be considered when assessing his chances on Tuesday.
Only one winner has come out of the race, the horse that finished eighth has gone on to win a maiden at Ipswich, the horse that finished ninth has finished runner-up at the Sunshine Coast, the remaining four horses to have raced haven't been able to place.
The $1.40 looks terribly skinny.
FANX/LORD WINDERMERE (Race 1 No 1&4)
Some advice I was given many years ago could be the way to go here – "a losing bet saved is the equivalent of back an even-money winner" but I think there is enough in the second and third favourites in the race to look for a better return.
The Lindsay Hatch-trained Lord Windermere resumes from a spell without a trial but did finish third at Toowoomba before the spell in a race that doesn't look inferior to the races the $1.40 chance has contested.
The first starter Fanx showed enough in his first trial at the Gold Coast when runner-up to suggest he will be competitive on debut.
A $20 investment on Lord Windermere and $13 on Fanx for a $100 collect gives a better than $3 return.
That's looks substantially better than $1.40 the favourite.
NELUMBO (Race 4 No 5)
Nelumbo is a Brad Herne-trained five-year-old who has hit his straps third-up in his last two preparations and looks set for a repeat at the same stage of his campaign on Tuesday.
Nelumbo won his maiden at the Sunshine Coast third-up two preparations back and finished runner-up at the same track taking on class three horses after two preparatory runs last time in before winning at the Gold Coast fourth-up.
Nelumbo returned in good order this preparation running second at the Gold Coast on September 9 but the edge was off him second-up at Ipswich.
With 55kg on Tuesday with the advantage of the inside gate, Nelumbo looks well placed to record career win number three.
ALLENA (Race 6 No 2)
Trained at Deagon by Sam Strazzieri, Allena looks well placed back to 1200m in the Tallai Country Club Benchmark 55 Handicap.
Allena didn't see out 1400m at the Sunshine Coast last start when she led clearly straightening and weakened over the last 150m.
Her previous form was more than strong enough for a NSW country benchmark 55 winning a benchmark 62 at Ipswich four runs back and placings at Ipswich and Ballina in class three company at two subsequent runs.
Allena isn't badly treated with 60kg and gets all the favours in the run from barrier two.
Expecting Allena to return to the winner's list on Tuesday.
