One of Australia's leading form analysts Daniel O'Sullivan believes the world's highest rated sprinter Chautauqua is up against it when he aims to become the inaugural winner of The Everest at Randwick on Saturday.
The highly respected professional punter is of the opinion the $10 million-event may prove insurmountable for the flashy grey.
"The problem I see with Chautauqua is how far out of his ground he's going to get," O'Sullivan said.
"This race is harder than the TJ Smith's that he's won, especially this year.
"The Everest has a lot more depth then when he ran down English in this year's TJ Smith.
"He's been getting out of his ground in races that have only been moderately run. A horse like Deploy is probably going to lead, there will be that big mid-race pressure and he might be a minute away at the 600m.
"I'm not suggesting he can't win but he's one of the bigger betting risks in the race and I couldn't have him from a betting perspective."
O'Sullivan believes that Saturday's race is going to be extremely competitive although he suggests horses that have more versatility to be nearer the speed should be much further towards the top of the market.
"I do think the market is wrong, that's not to say it is massively wrong because there is very little between the top chances but personally I have them shuffled a little bit differently," he said.
"I have Vega Magic on top. Both his runs this time in have been genuine Group I standard.
"He's tactically versatile, he's got a bit of strength at 1400m which is potentially a bit of an asset in what is probably going to be fast run race.
"The evidence is in the quality of his times, sectionals and adjusted speed measures.
"The day that he beat Brave Smash I think he gave 6.5kg in weight, so you have to factor that in.
"Even if you said 3kg is equal to a length, then you have to add another two lengths to his winning margin over Brave Smash.
"His 1400m win after that was just phenomenal with the explosive turn of foot that he showed.
"I would have him narrowly on top and then I think there is not much between Deploy, Redzel and then I would have Chautauqua.
"And then I think there's a bunch with English, Redkirk Warrior, She Will Reign, and Clearly Innocent - all with not much between them but they are only a length or so behind the others, it's such a competitive race.
"And behind them are the likes of Brave Smash, Fell Swoop, Houtzen and Tulip."
O'Sullivan explained that despite the strong anticipated tempo of the race this doesn't always favour the backmarkers.
"A horse like Deploy is able to set a high, fast pace in front and people may say well that will suit the backmarkers but it doesn't suit the backmarkers if the leaders can still run the time," he said.
"Where pressure suits backmarkers is when the pressure is too high for the leaders to cope with.
"Going back now, horses like Sunline and Might And Power set very fast speed in front but they had the talent to sustain it.
"It can work in reverse, where you find the fast leaders actually have the chasers under pressure inside the 800m.
"It more gases the chasers because they are working even harder to try and make up the ground and they just can't because the leaders are going so well."
"There's not much between Deploy, Redzel and Chautauqua in terms of quality, it's just their versatility to be up the front and it being harder to make up ground at Randwick on these firm tracks.
"From a betting perspective there is just a lot more percentage in your favour with the versatile types."
Current favourite She Will Reign also finds herself down O'Sullivan's list of selections despite a barnstorming win in the Group I Moir Stakes first-up.
"She Will Reign's win at the Valley was good but on objective measures it was not to Everest standard, if you can say that," O'Sullivan said.
"She only just beat Viddora, who arguably should have won, and there was a bunched finish behind them - those horses would all be 100/1 in the Everest, so she has to take another step forward.
"That's not to say she can't do it but she will need to produce a new career peak.
"Although she did win last start history has proven it is extremely difficult for early three-year-old fillies to beat older horses in black-type races.
"I just wonder in a big race if She Will Reign draws in amongst them, she's only a small three-year-old filly.
"I've been told she still has a bit to go in terms of her race sense so there's a bit of a question mark if she gets in amongst big older horses whether she can go to that next level under that sort of scenario.
"She might have to have to fight amongst a tough group of seasoned, top-class sprinters."
O'Sullivan will be intently waiting on Tuesday's barrier draw for The Everest as he believes this will be pivotal for a host of chances.
"The barrier draw will definitely play a big part," O'Sullivan said.
"For example, for horses like She Will Reign and English, that can be forward of midfield or right out the back – to draw four, five or six probably enhances their chances but a horse like Chautauqua it probably makes no difference at all. He's going to be last regardless.
"It will make a difference for Clearly Innocent who could be seventh or eighth instead of tenth, eleventh, twelfth if he draws well.
"I think the draw around Redzel and Deploy is interesting in terms of the battle for the lead. Redzel is a horse which needs to lead or be outside the lead, he doesn't like to be around other horses.
"Vega Magic is versatile and can race almost anywhere from almost any barrier draw."
O'Sullivan's on top selection Vega Magic is currently $6.50 with Bet365 while She Will Reign heads the market at $4.80.
