Greg Polson Preview and top three bets for Canberra

Greg Polson - Friday September 22

The speed map and a trainer on the rise figure prominently in our best bets at Canberra, while weight carrying statistics suggest punters should be wary about launching into the favourite in the get-out stakes.

Advertisement
Greg Polson points us in the direction of winners at Canberra on Friday

Hopefully we will have a bank for the big weekend of racing ahead of us by the time the last race of the day arrives at Canberra and won't be tempted in the get-out stakes but if punters are looking to have a bet they should be aware of the record for horses carrying 61.5kg at Canberra in recent years.

The Joe Pride-trained So Spirited is the $2.30 early favourite in the Inglis Class One Handicap (1200m) after finishing a close third at Gosford resuming and was a winner at Beaumont second-up last time but the 61.5kg is a distinct leveller.

Horses carrying 61.5kg at Canberra since January 2013 have a winning strike rate of 11.6 per cent, favourites have fared better at 18 per cent but your punting bank will run out quickly supporting them with a 56 per cent loss on turnover.

So Spirited may well come out and win the race but from a long term statistical perspective the odds are well and truly against him.

Brad Widdup is a trainer going places with 13 winners from his 46 runners and if there is a trainer to blackbook for the months and years ahead this trainer is the one.

Widdup has been a key player in the Darley and Godolphin operations in recent years so the pedigree is there for him to be a successful trainer.

Two Widdup runners feature in our best bets for Canberra on Friday.

I AM SPECIAL (Race 1 No 1)

After a couple of solid trials, I Am Special was expected to win on debut at Muswellbrook but punters did their money cold with the daughter of I Am Invincible buckjumping soon after the start and taking no part in the race.

It was back to the trials with I Am Special racing tractably when less than a length from the winner in a Hawkesbury trial on September 18.

Widdup would have ironed out any issues with I Am Special and I'm expecting the mare to make amends on Friday in the Revive Bathrooms/CMC Hummer Maiden Plate (1000m).

FORCE OF MAGIC (Race 2 No 4)

Force Of Magic from the Keith Dryden and Scott Collings stable has to overcome the Widdup-trained Zabeelions to win the Delegate Hotel Benchmark 68 Handicap (2000m) but does have the speed map in his favour.

Force Of Magic was taken on in front before finishing a brave second over the 2000m at Queanbeyan last time out but is the only genuine on pace runner in the field of six on Friday and should get a leisurely time up front.

If that's the case Zabeelions faces a significant task to run Force Of Magic down.

CAPEABEEL (Race 5 No 5)

The speed map for the Brindabella Stockfeeds Class One and Maiden Plate indicates I Am Special's stablemate Capeabeel is set to get an uncontested lead.

A Bathurst winner resuming two runs back, Capeabeel was a beaten favourite at Tuncurry last start when he looked a run short.

With two runs under his belt this time in and the likelihood of a soft lead, Capeabeel will take plenty of running down.

Advertisment
More Reading...
Mogumber Park hoists wet sail with Marine One
This time last year, the first foals by Mogumber Park stallion Marine One were widely regarded as some of the best types on the ground in Western Australia.
Breeding To Win – 2025 G1 Darley Flight Stakes
The prestigious Darley Princess Series reaches its crescendo this week with the 77th running of the $750,000 G1 ATC Flight Stakes (1600m) over Royal Randwick's famous mile.
Who Was Flight?
A G1 race since 1984, the Flight Stakes is a race won by special fillies - often the ones who go on to do extraordinary things on the track against all comers as older mares and that's as it should be as Hall Of Fame legend Flight exemplified that style of thoroughbred.
Recent success highlights Inglis Digital October (Early) Sale
A range of exciting racing and breeding prospects – as well as a number of in-form racehorses and shares in Stakes winners – headline the Inglis Digital October (Early) Online Sale.
Kiwi Sires a Recipe for NZB Ready to Run Sale Success
Much of the NZB Ready to Run Sale’s extraordinary success has been underpinned by the stallions that have stood in New Zealand in recent decades.
Juvenile Trial Watch – Warwick Farm
We had three heats for 2YO’s run at Warwick Farm on Friday morning over 815m with winners by Farnan, Ole Kirk and Kia Ora Stud’s first season sire Captivant, while Stay Inside had an impressive trial winner at Murray Bridge.
Captivant Colt Shines at Warwick Farm Trials
Captivant’s burgeoning reputation for producing precocious 2YOs took another leap forward at today’s Warwick Farm trials, with Courthezon powering to victory in Heat 10.
2YO Stakes Racing – Sale Mail
Three stakes races for new season juveniles add plenty of interest to a stellar day of racing this Saturday in Sydney and Melbourne, so let’s take a look at the Sale Mail for these races.
New Stakes-Winner for Zoustar
The $150,000 Listed Hannan’s Handicap (1400m) provided reigning champion sire Zoustar with a new stakes-winner when seven year-old gelding Multinational led for home and could not be caught.
Four Winners for Dennis
Local trainer Robert Dennis won half of the eight-race card at Ascot Park on Friday, culminating with a special win by Sir Sterling in the Vale Tony Dennis (1400m).