It's the time of the year when I start to spread my punting wings and I'm keen to get involved at Flemington and Randwick on Saturday.
JORDA (Flemington Race 1 No 1)
Classy filly that was most impressive when resuming from a long spell with an unlucky third behind Pariah in the San Domenico Stakes. Resuming from an 11-month spell, Jorda was unable to secure clear running from around the 400m to inside the 200m. Over the last 100m of the race she went stride for stride with Chauffer to the line and he ran the quickest last 200m of the race. In my opinion if she gets clear running from the top of the straight, she pushes Pariah. On Saturday, she comes back to fillies’ grade, only carries 2kg above the minimum and her opposition largely consists of Melbourne’s B-graders. If she handles the straight, she’ll take beating.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.90 @ CrownBet
MR SNEAKY (Flemington Race 3 No 12)
I love backing classy and progressive four-year-olds when they step into black-type grade for the first time and this bloke’s profile is exactly what I look for. He scored two good wins at the back end of his last campaign before he produced a Leyland Brothers performance at Scone prior to the Scone Guineas, forcing his late scratching. Luckily for those involved in the horse he came through his fence jumping expedition unscathed and made his return at Caulfield a fortnight ago when indicating he’s gone to another level since coming back, scoring as easier win as you’d see. Up to Listed grade on Saturday, he drops from 60kg to 54kg, and he’s drawn to get the right run again while his two main dangers in the market have drawn out. Betting up.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.80 @ PalmerBet
CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (Randwick Race 5 No 2)
If this filly had drawn favourably in her first two runs this preparation the formguide would read 1x1x11. The filly and her jockey Tye Angland have been victims of bad gates, forcing the jockey to ride the daughter of Not A Single Doubt more conservatively than desired before hitting the line stronger than her opponents. Again, on Saturday, Champagne Cuddles got no favours when the barrier draw was done but two factors have me convinced she will be saluting in the Group II Tea Rose Stakes. Firstly, she steps up to 1400m which will suit her down to the ground if the way she’s hit the line in the two runs this prep is anything to go by. Secondly, the addition of fillies like Pandemonium, Sweet Deal and Acqume in this will give us a more solidly run race which will aid Champagne Cuddles’ cause. I think she wins this week.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.50 @ William Hill ($4 Price Pump), PalmerBet
HARTNELL (Flemington Race 7 No 1)
This is my no-brainer bet on Saturday. He’s clearly the second-best horse in the land and his first-up win in the P.B Lawrence indicated he’s come back as well as ever. I really love the fact that the stable has allowed him four weeks between that run and this second-up target. His trainer James Cummings has tasted plenty of success over the past couple of seasons adopting four weeks between runs with horses. Then I think back to Hartnell’s past Flemington performances. He made Jameka look second rate when winning the Turnbull Stakes, her run prior to her easy Caulfield Cup victory and he ran third in the Melbourne Cup last year when he didn’t stay. The more I bet the more I win.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2 @ Ladbrokes (Enhanced odds)
MISSILE CODA (Randwick Race 9 No 15)
This is another horse that fits into the Mr Sneaky category – a classy horse that has plenty of room to move in the handicap. She’s a three-time winner from four starts and her last victory in a benchmark 72 midweek at Canterbury was awesome. She was scratched at the barriers since then at Canterbury on August 30 and went back to the trials to be cleared by stewards, allowing the stable to keep her up to the mark. It’s a solid race on Saturday but this mare has Stakes class written all over her and if she gets a run she’ll be mighty hard to hold out.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.20 @ Ladbrokes ($4.80 Odds Boost), CrownBet, Luxbet, William Hill ($5.50 Price Pump), Unibet
