Regular followers will be shocked because I’m betting at Moonee Valley on Saturday while I also expect a Group I class mare to bounce back at Rosehill.
HEARTLINGS (Rosehill Race 1 No 1)
This handy mare did a good job when winning first-up at 1400m and she’s a horse that improves off the first run back from a spell. I like the way this race shapes for her with the only other on speed candidates being Positive Problems and Lani Girl, the rest of the field are mid/backmarkers so the front three can do themselves some favours here and prove hard to catch. Heartlings comes back in grade off her first-up win and the 2kg penalty she incurred for that success is offset by the 3kg claim for the apprentice. I respect a few of the backmarkers here but there’s no way Heartlings should be these odds in this race.
BET: WIN
ODDS $7 @ Sportsbet ($8 Power Play)
MAPMAKER (Rosehill Race 3 No 13)
This bloke is going great guns this prep and he’s such a big gross type he can still improve on Saturday. Comes into his with the strong Special Missile formlines and steps up to 1800m which I feel will suit him down to the ground. It’s a race where there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of pressure on paper, Mapmaker will roll forward with his lightweight and has the services of astute on-speed rider Adam Hyeronimus. The favourite Alward is a good prospect but he’ll get back in the run and he’s coming back from two 2000m runs to 1800m, a distance he was beaten over three start back in Melbourne in a moderate midweek Benchmark 70 race so I’m keen to bet against him with the topweight at even money. Mapmaker looks a pretty safe each-way play to me at double figure odds.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $12 @ Bet365
DEPLOY (Rosehill Race 5 No 3)
Smart sprinter that returned from successful Queensland campaign with a determined win in the Show County Quality three weeks ago. Traditionally that a solid form race for the following weeks in the spring and this looks the ideal next target for this son of Fastnet Rock. My speedmap indicates he’s the only leader in the race so he should be able to run the race to suit and around Rosehill when a leader gets favours they’re always hard to catch. I’ve got a query on Foxplay – It’s been well documented the first-up run took more out of her that the trainer had hoped, Dixie Blossom missed her first-up run while Egg Tart’s get back and run on racing pattern makes her vulnerable in this. I’ll be backing Deploy and playing the quinella with Cannyescent.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5 @ Bet365
OMEI SWORD (Rosehill Race 6 No 2)
I mulled over this race forever on Wednesday night and in the end my gut got me over the line. Some questioned her first-up run but she was beaten by the pattern of the day and the tempo of the race. Omei Sword ran her last 600m in a slick 32.57 seconds and the fastest last 200m, 11.15 and that was after she buckled over on jumping where her knees were touching the ground. Having a look at Saturday’s field gives the indication they will run in the Sheraco Stakes which will suit this mare down to the ground and on Saturday she gets a weight that allows Hugh Bowman to jump aboard. Provided they can run on, if you’re not on her, I bet you’ll nervously be looking for her late.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5.50 @ PalmerBet
LIZZIE L’AMOUR (Moonee Valley Race 8 No 10)
It takes a bit for me to be keen on something at the velodrome if it’s not Cox Plate day and a review of the Taupo trials on August 18 struck a chord with me. This Group I-winning mare by Zabeel couldn’t have trialled any better when winning a star-studded 1100m heat and the astute Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman stable put her straight on the plane to Melbourne. A look at Saturday’s Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and it looks an extremely winnable target for this mare with a super fresh record. She progressed from a low grade New Zealand Benchmark 65 to being a Group I weight-for-age winner last prep and I’m expecting there’s more improvement to come. She’s not here to win second tier races this spring so I’m confident of a mighty showing on Saturday.
BET: WIN
ODDS $7 @ CrownBet, Sportsbet ($8 Power Play), Ladbrokes ($9 Odds Boost), Luxbet, Bet365, William Hill ($8 Price Pump), PalmerBet, Unibet
