There's a few shorties on the program at Beaumont on Thursday and it is hard to disagree with the bookies assessment so waiting till the last to find a bit of value.
The John Thompson-trained Tahsin is a $4.60 early favourite for the Tyrell's Wines Benchmark 70 Handicap (1350m) with Brenton Avdulla in the saddle.
Sure, he has been placed two from two first-up but that isn't winning and when you consider that both his wins from seven career starts have been over 1600m it is starting to look like he is well under the odds.
My assessment has Tahsin as a $6.50 chance so of course if the favourite is under the odds there should be value elsewhere and that looks to be the Jarrod Austin-trained Kelvinside who I have assessed as a $4 chance with $6 available in early markets and will be fitter for one run back from a spell on Thursday.
Kelvinside doesn't win out of turn with just two wins from 16 starts but he has won second-up previously and one of his victories was over the Beaumont 1350m.
Another aspect of his form profile worth considering is that six of his last eight starts have been on metropolitan tracks with the two times he ventured to a provincial track in that sequence producing the Beaumont win over 1350m and a photo-finish second at Kembla.
Ignore Kelvinside's first-up run at Warwick Farm when he finished over three-lengths from the winner Petrossian, he was never totally clear in the straight and looked to have something to offer.
The Alan Scorse-trained What Could Be represents value as well, assessed at $6 with $7 available this morning.
What Could Be returned to racing at Wyong on July 13 when a close-second and with his record at the Beaumont circuit reading three wins and a second from four starts he looks primed second-up on Thursday.
