Confident with some value plays at Randwick and tempted by the huge odds about a proven weight-for-age performer in the Group I Memsie Stakes at Caulfield – it could be a fat day!
SUPER EX (Randwick Race 1 No 6)
Can't believe bookies are letting us back on this strapping Mark Newnham-trained colt. Posted wide on debut when a game third behind D'Argento/Smartedge. You'll struggle to find a better three-year-old form reference anywhere. Knocked over Catesby and Conquest at his second career outing – they each came out and won at their next start. Then sent to Canterbury and toyed with rivals – leaving Albumin and Schubert in his wake. Has the early speed to take up a prominent position and has drawn a soft gate for Hugh Bowman. Has to be the horse to beat.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.20 @Sportsbet (PowerPlay $4.80)
MANDALONG KISS (Randwick Race 3 No 7)
Mandalong Kiss picks-up a race each campaign at decent odds and Saturday's event looks just the type she will pinch. It's a messy looking affair with no obvious pace yet the two horses vying for favouritism are backmarkers. Mandalong Kiss mixes her racing pattern so I won't be surprised if she settles close-up in this off a soft gate. She's tough, handles all conditions and her two runs this time in have been good. First-up at Canterbury she zoomed home over 1250m then ran onto heels and should have been closer when out to 1400m at Rosehill last time. The Randwick mile suits so I'll be playing her for something – it will be a big result if she lobs.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $12 @ Bet365
Worth the punt at big odds. This former Kiwi won the Group I Australian Cup last campaign (beating Jameka) so is a proven weight-for-age galloper. The 1400m around Caulfield is perceived to be too short for the five-year-old son of Teofilo which is why we are getting such crazy odds. But he was beaten less than a length around this route in the Barton Stakes last campaign and clocked fast closing sectionals when resuming this preparation in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes. Clocked 34.69 secs for the final 600m which was equal quickest in the race and his final furlong of 12.01 secs was beaten only by Abbey Marie which snuck along the rails. That was an on-pace dominated affair during an on-pace dominated meeting. Given a fairer racing surface and added fitness second-up, Humidor could cause an upset with genuine pace/pressure expected up front.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $23 @ CrownBet
INVINCIBLE GEM (Randwick Race 8 No 7)
Tactical pace should give Invincible Gem the edge she needs to win the Tramway. There is a distinct lack of pressure engaged with backmarkers clearly in the majority. Only Ecuador looks capable of leading and he should control the tempo to suit. That leaves Corey Brown with the option of taking the trail aboard Invincible Gem. A brilliant first-up winner of the Missile Stakes – the daughter of I Am Invincible had the final shot at them on that occasion but this time around she'll be the one making the opposition do the chasing. From three starts at Randwick she's recorded two wins and a Group I second in the Randwick Guineas when in front until the final bound. Her biggest problem will be getting past Ecuador, but I'm confident she has the gears to get the job the done.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.40 @ Sportsbet (Powerplay $4.90)
