Greg Polson previews Coffs Harbour Monday August 28

Greg Polson - Monday August 28

Knowledge is everything on the racetrack and here's a fact punters need to know about Coffs Harbour before they launch into a favourite at the track on Monday.

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Coffs Harbour in recent years has been a graveyard for favourite punters with just 23 percent of favourites winning compared to the national average of 33 percent.

There are reasons for the poor performance of favourites, Coffs Harbour is a nightmare for punters on heavy tracks with the first horse to get to the outside fence often getting the money – with recent restoration work on the track hopefully this might change but the breakdown of favourites performance year on year doesn't suggest that is happening at this stage.

Year

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Winning Strike Rate %

26

22

24

23

19


Although the figures vary when broken down by distance each journey is below the average.

Distance

800m

1000m

1200m

1300m

1400m

1600m

Winning Strike Rate %

27.1

30

15.5

17.2

24

15.8


Although punters seem to get it wrong at Coffs Harbour with the top pick, the statistics start to improve with the second favourite winning above average to bring the top two in the market up to 43.9 percent with the top three favourites a more respectable 57 percent.

What do we make of these figures for racing at Coffs Harbour on Monday?

Like all the statistics I provide in these articles, they are a measure of performance and profitability over time and all seven favourites could come out and win on Monday so I am not trying to steer punters away from the favourites.

I am just providing some knowledge for punters meaning they might have a closer look at the investments they intend to make at Coffs Harbour.

The best of the favourites at Coffs Harbour on Monday look to be the Mick O'Neill-trained D'Last Za in the Top 50 Club Maiden Handicap (800m) and the Stirling Osland-trained First Family who will be fitter second-up in the Carlton Mid 3YO Maiden Handicap (1200m) with.

Conversely, the former Gerald Ryan-trained Escapado having his first run for Luke A Thomas and Central Witness from the Daniel Want yard look risky favourites.

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