On pacers have a distinct advantage over the sprint journeys at Nowra which suggests there is a false favourite in the opening race on Sunday.
Horses that either led or settled in the first two at their previous start over the short courses at Nowra have a 31.7 percent winning strike rate for an 8.4 percent profit on turnover which makes the $2.80 early quote for the Graham Payne-trained Exacting who is likely to settle away from the early speed in the John Dignam Benchmark 65 Handicap (1200m) look well under the odds.
Exacting will be having his second run for Payne after Mick Price trained the five-year-old gelding in Melbourne to win races at Pakenham and Wangaratta with a runner-up finishing on the Sandown Lakeside a highlight on his 17 start resume.
Exacting did enough at his first NSW run finishing third in a benchmark 65 at Beaumont Newcastle to suggest he will win races for the new connections working home strongly but with both his career victories to date coming over 1400m and the advantage the on pacers have at Nowra there has to be a genuine query whether Exacting will be giving away too much start over the 1200m journey.
$2.80 is certainly short enough odds to find out.
If we are correct with our assumption that Exacting is well under the odds there must value elsewhere and the value lies with the Robert and Luke Price-trained Summit Breath and Freedom Call from the Theresa Bateup stable who along with the top-weight Janis represent the speed in the race.
Summit Breath has been placed in three of her last five outings and connections have found the right race to enable the mare to record her fourth career win whilst Freedom Call will be all the better for her photo-finish second at Moruya resuming from a 337-day break between races.
On prices available at the time of writing, a $32 investment on Summit Breath and a $17 wager on Freedom Call for a $100 return provides a better than even money result whichever horse wins, that is certainly a better than play than the $2.80 Exacting straight out.
