Here's some food for thought from Greg Polson on Rosehill Saturday

Greg Polson - Friday August 25

The winning strike rate for horses carrying 61kg or more at Rosehill since January 1, 2013 is just 6.8% for a loss on turnover of 67.2% with only one horse winning at the track this calendar year burdened with that weight or more.

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Here's some food for thought on Saturday's Rosehill meeting.

The horse in question was Invincible Knight who, under Hugh Bowman carried the 61kg on a heavy (8) winning over 1350m back on June 17.

A couple of the horses weighted in the 61kg or above bracket tomorrow have apprentices lessening the impost but that doesn’t make a great deal of difference to the stats at Rosehill.

  • 1.5kg apprentices have a 9% winning strike rate on horses 61kg and above
  • 2kg apprentices 4% winning strike rate
  • 3kg apprentices 3% winning strike rate

As always with the work I do on stats, they are a measure of profitability and probability over a period of time and we can finish with egg on our faces but the stats are issuing a warning tomorrow, and that is beware of a handful of runners with big weights.

There's certainly food for thought with Awoke, a short-priced favourite in Race 2 and the second and third horses, Chatuchak and Gretna all weighted on 61kg while Hogmanay an Special Missile are both prominent in betting in Race 8 and each have been weighted on 62kg although they both get 3kg off for claiming apprentices.

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