"When you are on a good thing stick to it" is a well-known saying and it is apt for a winning way we have discovered on the Canberra Acton track.
In our article for the last meeting at the Canberra Acton circuit we highlighted the 1750m races and showed how two simple factors led to a decent profit over time – see the full story here.
Two horses were highlighted from the two races over the journey on the day with Almost Court winning easily and Megawatt finishing second.
The two factors were horses jumping from barriers 1 to 4 and must have finished in the first four at their latest outing with the winning way producing a winning strike rate of 62.5 percent and a profit on turnover of 15.1 percent.
I should point out we are dealing with limited data on the Canberra Acton surface but like all the statistics I provide in these articles they are only a starting point – qualifying horses might have the statistics on their side but they still need the ability to win at the distance and grade on the day.
The Luke Pepper-trained Megawatt qualifies in the Pacific Stone Class 1 and Maiden Plate (1750m) and I should say I originally steered away from the horse.
Winning strike rates are one of the central planks of my form analysis and one win from 24-starts would normally be a huge red flag but I decided to dig deeper and my confidence grew enormously.
Friday's 1750m race is a class one and maiden plate.
There are only three horses that have won a race from the 12 acceptors so by definition there are nine maiden gallopers.
The maidens have raced on 65 occasions for just eight placings and although there are a couple in the race that look capable of winning races including the Matthew Dale-trained Clear Sailing each are going to a middle distance for the first time.
Megawatt is clearly the best performed horse in the race and has finished runner-up in two of her three runs this time in.
Megawatt should be right at her peak having her fourth run back from a spell and despite the red flags looks close to a good thing.
