I copped a few punting uppercuts last weekend but I'm not going to take it lying down, heading into Saturday's Rosehill meeting with a fight back attitude.
MOSSMAN GORGE (Rosehill Race 1 No 5)
I'm shocked this horse hasn't opened favourite on Saturday. He resumed from a spell on August 10 when scoring an easy win at Kembla against the older horses, beating a horse called Azcannyaz. While I concede that horse's desire is questionable, in its previous two runs he was beaten 1-1/4 lengths by Albumin and 2-1/2 lengths by Centro Superior, both of which are at worst midweek city class. Then you look back at Mossman Gorge's form in his first campaign and there's a third placing, beaten two lengths by Gunnison and Acqume, a Group II winner and a genuine city class galloper. This is a Highway Handicap and the $2.15 favourite did get beaten by a maiden last start, albeit one with potential, off Brisbane midweek form. I concede Mossman Gorge will need some luck early from his wide gate but at the price I'll chance the arm because I'm confident he's the best horse in this race.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5 @ Unibet
MARSUPIAL (Rosehill Race 3 No 11)
Here's the best bet of the day. This strapping son of Street Cry showed what he was capable of on debut when running away from the Golden Slipper runner-up Frolic to win by a widening 2-1/4 lengths with another half-length back to the Stakes placed, two-time city winner Lipizzan. From there he went to Melbourne, back to Canberra then Sydney and raced below expectations in those three runs but do yourself a favour and go and have a look at his two trials leading up to his return on Saturday. He was jog-trotting when winning a 790m trial at Warwick Farm on July 28 before holding his own against the genuine The Everest prospect Spieth over 800m at the same track on August 14. Takes on the older horses on Saturday but he gets 3.5kg or more off all runners and the three-year-olds have been winning more than their share of open class races early this season. The race should be run at a good gallop, expecting him to travel around midfield before unleashing a turn of foot these aren't capable of holding out. I'll also be having a small dabble on the quinella with Lady Jivago which is big odds.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.60 @ Sportsbet, CrownBet, Luxbet, Bet365, William Hill, Palmerbet, Unibet
DESTINY'S KISS (Rosehill Race 5 No 1)
A small throw at the stumps on this consistent galloper that usually runs a cheeky race when on the fresh side. He's been given a let-up since campaigning through June where he resumed with a solid performance in a slowly run, on-pace dominated affair over 1400m. This time he's at 2000m off a 56 day let-up and he worked home in good style in a recent 1200m trial at Warwick Farm. He's a proven weight carrier and it's been a while since he's only had to lump Saturday's weight of 59kg plus he get the services of Hugh Bowman, a luxury he hasn't had since finishing fourth in the JRA Plate in April 2015. He's not without a chance here.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $15 @ Sportsbet
PARIAH (Rosehill Race 7 No 1)
Quality colt resuming for his spring three-year-old campaign. As a juvenile, he showed he's top class and his recent trials would indicate he hasn't lost any of his ability - if anything he's a better horse. As a two-year-old he recorded a win over the impressive recent Rosebud winner Menari, albeit a lucky one, before going to Melbourne where he finished a brave second after travelling three wide without cover throughout in the Blue Diamond. Only running on the TV but he looks to have really strengthened up since we last saw him and his two trial efforts have been top-notch. The San Dominco should be run at a solid gallop on Saturday and I'm expecting Pariah to be ridden back off the speed, utilising his dash to come with one run and prove hard to hold out. Odds won't be anything flash but I think he will win and I'm also happy to have something on the quinella with Jorda.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.45 @ Sportsbet
NO DOUBT (Rosehill Race 9 No 4)
He's an underrated horse this bloke and I thought his return to racing behind Badazoj and Denmagic on August 12 was excellent. He's a horse that has improved significantly second up in his only two previous campaigns and there's no reason not to expect he'll continue that trend on Saturday. Have a look through his form last prep where he produced respectable efforts behind It's Somewhat, beaten 2-1/4 lengths in the Ajax Stakes and second, beaten a length behind Spectroscope in the Doncaster Prelude – that form reads well for this. Has always raced well at Rosehill in the past, he's two from three at 1200m and he's most effective on top of the ground. Drawn to get the right run here, he's over the odds.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $13 @ Luxbet, Bet365
