The Marc Connors-trained Coys is the favourite for the Wyong Rugby League Group Benchmark 65 Handicap (1600m) on the back of comfortable win at Gosford when he was the beneficiary of a soft lead.
Coys will be right on the speed again but will have some company with Josh Adams on No Effort Needed likely to be aggressive early launching from an outside gate.
The likelihood of back to back wins for Coys as the winner of just three races from 22-starts is a red flag that should have punters thinking cautiously but the 4.5kg weight rise from the last win is the clincher.
Coys carried 55kg to victory at Gosford and will carry 59.5kg after Deanne Panya's 1.5kg claim on Tuesday.
Coys has carried 55kg, 55.5kg and 56kg to victory in his three race wins and the stats back up the task Coys faces with horses rising by a similar weight at Wyong over the last four racing seasons having a 22 percent winning strike rate and a 29.7 percent loss on turnover.
Of course, Coys can still win the race but is well under the odds in early betting at $3.80.
No Effort Needed coming off a strong win over the trip at Newcastle last start will provide plenty of opposition as will Nissile who backs up after having no luck at Warwick Farm last Wednesday.
Both horses represent substantially better value from a punting perspective than Coys.
