With two 1750m races on the program at Canberra on Friday I thought it was worthwhile to have a look at the statistics for the trip and the results provide a good starting point to find a winner over the journey.
The factor that stands out at first glance is the advantage the inside barriers have over the journey.
Barriers 1-4 win 63.2 per cent of the 1750m races but that factor alone isn't enough to show a profit with a loss on turnover of 30.8 per cent because we are investing on up to four horses in a race but the addition of one simple single factor turns barriers 1-4 into profitability and that is a requirement for a horse to finish in the top four placings at their previous start.
Horses that start from barrier 1-4 and that finished top four last start have a winning strike rate of 62.5 per cent and a profit on turnover of 15.1 per cent over the trip.
I should point out we are dealing with limited data on the Canberra Acton surface but like all the statistics I provide in these articles they are only a starting point – qualifying horses might have the statistics on their side but they still need the ability to win at the distance and grade on the day.
Two horses contesting the 1750m races on Friday fit the bill ideally.
The former New Zealander gelding Almost Court from the Barbara Joseph and Paul Jones will be chasing back to back Australian wins in the Coopers 2017 Vintage Ale Benchmark 68 Handicap (1750m).
A win and two runner-up finishes from six starts before crossing the Tasman, Almost Court had plenty on his rivals winning a class one and maiden plate at the Sapphire Coast at his first Australian start leading all the way.
Almost Court won with plenty of authority and looks set for successive wins launching from barrier four and dropping 1.5kg in weight going to a benchmark race.
The Luke Pepper-trained Megawatt is ready to hit his straps third-up in the ALM On Premise Class 1 & Maiden Plate after a promising return to racing when runner-up at Moruya resuming but the edge was off her when a beaten favourite at the Sunshine Coast last start.
Megawatt has the weight advantage being the top-rated horse in the set-weight race with a 6-point benchmark rating margin over her closest rival.
A 6-point benchmark rating differential equates to 3kg which is a huge advantage to a mare ready to win.
