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Top bets from Paul Joice for Saturday August 12

Paul Joice - Saturday August 12

With fine weather forecast and a good track expected I am sticking with Rosehill on Saturday.

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No need to spread the wings too far on Saturday - I'm sticking to Rosehill.

PEACOCK (Rosehill Race 5 No 4)
 If you were going off first-up stats you wouldn't be backing this Godolphin runner but a gelding operation and a recent Rosehill trial have me backing my own judgement – this bloke is flying. James Cummings has given the son of Lonhro two lead-up trials for this and they've been impressive. Showed some early pace before racing away for a five-length romp two weeks ago. Tackles the 1350m so will have the fitness in his legs and off a soft draw I have Blake Shinn mapping to settle handy with a gun trail. Worthy gamble.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4 @ Sportsbet ($4.60 PowerPlay)

TREKKING (Rosehill Race 6 No 3)
This looks a three-horse race with Menari and Siege Of Quebec well found in betting. That leaves Trekking as the value runner and I'm confident he'll give this a real shake. Gets 4kg off Menari which is a significant weight pull. Trialled in super fashion winning at Randwick with plenty in reserve and did win around this route on good going on debut as a two-year-old. Siege Of Quebec comes back from 1400m to 1100m which isn't ideal considering he will cop plenty of pressure up front. For me Trekking looks the logical play – and logic works wonders in this game.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5.50 @ William Hill ($6 PricePump)

GRETNA (Rosehill Race 8 No 4)
I can only go on what I see and Gretna's recent nine-length barrier trial win tells me Chris Waller has this four-year-old mare ready to go! Gretna has always impressed me as a type. She's big, strong and oozes class. But her record doesn't back that up with only three wins from 17 starts. I'm going to take the punt on her here first-up in a race devoid of pace and pressure. She should land in the first two and will prove tough to get past.
BET: WIN
ODDS $6 @ William Hill ($7 PricePump)

SPECIAL MISSILE (Rosehill Race 9 No 4)
 Special Missile is charging through the grades and I don't see any reason why that will change. Settled close-up and was always going to win in his latest midweek Benchmark 72 win and despite jumping into Benchmark 80 grade, drops 1.5kg. Drawn to lob in the first few and with only an even tempo expected, the backmarkers are going to have plenty of work to do. Brenton Avdulla knows the horse well having three previous rides for two wins and a second.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5.50 @ Bet365

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