A huge field lines up for a great rendition of the $2million G2 Ingham, and I'm going with an upset result and a trifecta that might pay for some Christmas treats!
Race fave Gringotts is all class but got beat in this last year deep into his preparation, has drawn awfully, will have to make history to carry his weight to a win.
Sabaj is exciting, but barrier 22?
Risking Yorkshire, though he'll love some rain, because he needs to lead and will have to burn petrol from barrier 16. He may not get an easy time of it, because others like Rise At Dawn have the ability to be up there pressuring him all the way!
So much depends on the weather, it being a typical stormy forecast for this time of year - but the Randwick track could be anything given the Sydney version of “stormy!”
I’m thinking a soft 5 /6 is most likely.
Top pick RISE AT DAWN
This talented five year old son of Almanzor has always shown a stack of natural ability. A winner at two on debut where he bolted in by more than three lengths over 1400m on a heavy track, the Ben, Will and Jd Hayes-trained Rise At Dawn had one more juvenile start (4th) before being turned out.
He was back at three with a bang, reeling off two smart wins, but soon felt the hard Autumn tracks. In the winter and into the spring of 2024 the gelding appreciated a kinder surface and put together a string of ripping runs in which he was never out of the quinella in six starts at Flemington and Caulfield and ended the preparation with a career first stakes win in the Listed Heatherlie Stakes 1700m.
Leading up to his Heatherlie win the athletic chestnut won or was placed in five 1600m starts. He's a natural miler,and he loves big tracks so that's a tick.
In February this year Rise At Dawn resumed with an impressive performance against a quality field to claim another 1400m Listed race, this time on soft ground at Flemington on Black Caviar Lightning Stakes day.
Then it was on to a first crack at the bigtime and the G1 All Star Mile on a Good 3, not ideal for him but he wasn't disgraced in the small field behind Tom Kitten. Next stop Sydney, the G1 Doncaster and he led as he likes to do, kicked hard and ran half a length fourth to Stefi Magnetica.
So he didn't look out of place in the G1 WFA Mile and improved out of sight in the G1 mile handicap over this course - which bodes well for his chances in this G2.
Rise At Dawn went on the road trip with stablemate War Machine to Queensland, and watched his buddy win the big one from back in the field - but he's returned in great form this spring, without winning! The gelding has twice G2 placed at 1500 and 1600m and last start probably found the 1800m of the Five Diamonds a touch far when fourth to Vivy Air.
Most importantly, he's going to get at least a little give underfoot for the first time this prep, comes back to his favourite distance, has winkers fitted for the first time and will carry just 53kg.
Rise At Dawn likes to lead or sit on pace and Kerrin Mcevoy, who rides him for the first time, won't have to use too much petrol to do so from barrier 7.
He is a horse of high cruising speed rather than having a accelerative turn of foot, so Kerrin will have to try and use that to advantage.
The other thing about Rise At Dawn, he is a real trier who always puts in and is extremely consistent. In the best Kiwi -bred tradition!
Rise At Dawn was purchased by Lindsay Park for $90,000 at the Melbourne Inglis Premier Yearling Sale.
From 21 starts the five year old has now won 8 races and placed 5 times for earnings of just over $1 million.
His big syndicate of proud owners includes long-time Lindsay Park foreman Bruno Rouge-Serret.
An Almanzor finding 1800m a little “too far”? It could be the case, as Rise At Dawn's dam was a super tough, quality speed mare.
She was the Towkay (Last Tycoon) daughter Kay's Awake - and though her stakes record shows one black type win in the 1200m Newmarket Hcp (the NZ Listed version!) that doesn't do her justice.
Kay's Awake was four times G1 placed to elite performers like Darci Brahma and Seachange.
The bonny mare retired to join the boutique broodmare band at Monovale Farm near Cambridge.
Kay's Awake left twelve foals for Monovale principals Joe and Max Smithies before her passing last year.
Rise At Dawn is her best to date and was her ninth foal. He is an older full brother to G3 Taranaki 2YO Classic (1200m) placegetter Kay’s Ruebe and a half brother to three other winners.
The last progeny of Kay's Awake yet to race are a three year old gelding by Proisir named Awaken and a two year old colt by Tarzino, Kaazeenooo.
Kay's Awake was the best of four winners from five to race for her Listed winning dam Wake Up Susie, a daughter of the obscure but well bred Mr Prospector stallion Hereward The Wake.
His tail female line goes back to Wagtail, the taproot mare of family 21-a - this is the family of the great Mill Reef son Doyoun who is Almanzor's third damsire, which creates a great pattern with Towkay's sire Last Tycoon,out of a Mill Reef daughter.
It's also the family of Derring-Do the tail male ancestor of Wootton Bassett's damsire Primo Dominie.
G3 winner Towkay was always going to be of great value as a broodmare sire and impart plenty of speed, being a half brother to G1 Stradbroke winner Danasinga and 4 x G1 Sprint mare Tracy’s Element, who became the dam of champion mare and Australian HOTY Typhoon Tracy.
A particularly great nick in this pedigree comes through the meeting of Blue Hens Park Appeal and Princess Tracy, both matrons being daughters of elite broodmare sire Ahonoora, out of mares carrying sons of Fair Trial - complemented in this pedigree by lines to Brigadier Gerard (Fair Trial son Petition tail male, from the wider family of Park Appeal - and Petition son My Swanee also carried by Wootton Bassett.
Rise At Dawn is linebred to the Hyperion son Aureole and to his family (2f), and sex balanced to the great Nasrullah son Nashua - damsire of Mr Prospector, his son Beaufort Sea sired Rise At Dawn's third dam Sue's Way.
Rise At Dawn's own tribe is Colonial Family 17 (Sharkie) - always a prolific source of stakes winners through the generations and the family of the great Kiwi champion Beaulivre!
Rise At Dawn and Kerrin McEvoy jump from barrier 7
Next best DARNATION
Going a bit left field with this Ciaron Maher trained mare at big odds but she's so well bred to love the mile and a wet track!
By Darley supersire Too Darn Hot out of the unraced Galileo daughter Monday Monday, five year old Darnation is bred on the proven Dubawi/ Galileo nick (Night Of Thunder, Ghaiyyath etc)
She was a G2 / G3 winner in the UK and ran well at G1 level on soft in France.
Her first Australian run was fine, she got going late, and she's unbeaten second up. Her G2 win in the UK was a domination of the field at a mile in the Hill Stakes at Doncaster.
Darnation is a homebred for the Regan family's high profile Newtown Anner Stud and was a first foal for her dam, who is a full sister to dual G2 winner Exemplar and to the dam of stakes winners Poker Face and Star Devine by Fastnet Rock.
Monday Monday is a half sister to the G1 1000 Guineas, G1 Irish Oaks and G1 Yorkshire Oaks heroine Blue Bunting (Dynaformer) so this is some blue blood.
Darnation's second dam Miarixa was sired by the peerless Linamix and her third dam is the G1 placed Mrs Arkada (Akarad)
This Classic family goes back to the mare Devotion - her daughter St Marguerite became the ancestress of Hail To Reason.
Too Darn Hot's damsire Singspiel has been a particularly effective source of that blood as a broodmare sire as has Roberto,carried by Dubawi's damsire Deploy.
Darnation was one of the very first Too Darn Hots to announce the stallion's arrival as a genetic powerhouse when she won her Group races as a juvenile.
She didn't fire on firm ground in the 1,000 Guineas but won the German equivalent at her next outing.
This lightly raced mare has only had 11 starts for 4 wins, 2 placings and just over $400,00 in earnings, it would have been more if she'd done her early racing here!
Darnation is bred
Mr Prospector 5m x 5m
Sadlers Wells 5m x 3m
Among the most interesting aspects of her lovely pedigree is the meeting of her G1 winning third damsire Akarad with his close relation Delsy, the third dam of Too Darn Hot.
Delsy's dam was sired by the Relic son Venture giving her a potent double dose of the blood and they all descend from Blue Hen Tourzima a half sister to Djeddah, the damsire of Blue Hen Lalun who is also a linebreeding subject here.
This family, all descending from taproot mare Frizette is additionally that of Mr Prospector and he brings his speed to the mix here x 2 via sons Seeking The Gold and Miswaki.
Darnation and Reece Jones have drawn wide, but she's a backmarker so perhaps that’s not the end of the world.
Relying on her history of making huge improvement second up, her love of a softer track and her proven class to be a real chance of an upset here!
Darnation and Reece will jump from gate 19
Roughie LOCH EAGLE
A funny thing, in the entire long history of this race no horse has ever won it twice!
Could Loch Eagle, the hero of 2023 (his only stakes win), be the one to break that drought?
Well he's by Jack and Bob Ingham's masterpiece Lonhro, so if ever a horse was going to… there might be a bit of help coming from on high!
Seven year old Loch Eagle is trained by Kris Lees and he is a royally bred horse, being a three quarter brother to Lonhro's 5 x G1 winner and juvenile Triple Crown champion Pierro, out of the Shamardal mare Song Street.
Now the veteran of 48 starts, Loch Eagle has been a classy and consistent performer winning 8 races with current earnings just under $2 million.
Bred by Nick Vass, Loch Eagle was a $230,000 Magic Millions purchase for Bruce Perry Bloodstock Ltd (BAFNZ) from the Newgate Farm draft.
His dam was originally purchased by James Harron Bloodstock for $450,000 at the 2013 Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale,
Song Street (IRE) is a half-sister to Octagonal’s best European performer, dual Group 1 winner Laverock, and to Miss Right Note (IRE), dam of both champion Pierro and G2 Wakeful Stakes winner Ambience.
Loch Eagle has been Song Street’s best performer in what has been (by this family’s lofty standards!) a disappointing stud career - and she was purchased by Justin Carey for $7,500 on Inglis Digital in 2022,
Connections will be doing a rain dance because the wetter the better for Loch Eagle, who returned from a spell with a pleasing fifth in The Gong, the race he finished second in before winning this (he drew wide then too!)
Never write the older Lonhros off, they keep on keeping on. Especially at Randwick
Loch Eagle drops to 53kg and Jay Ford takes the reins from barrier 15
