The greatest day in Australian racing, nay in Australian sport is upon us - Cup Eve is better than Christmas Eve!
There's a lot to unpack. t's time to hit the formguide, consult the numerologist or cast the I Ching, as millions of punters attempt to pluck the Cup winner from a field of 24 runners in a 3200m handicap. Add rain!
A smorgasbord of global staying blood and a raft of non-intersecting formlines bedazzle our eyes.
There are Cup guides, Cup liftouts, Cup ratings, Cup previews, Cup back stories, Cup replays, Cup analysis from panels of Cup experts quoting Cup stats - and it's all supposed to help us find the elusive winner of the great race.
It's complete madness, and it's all great fun.
Here's my contribution to the mass outbreak of Cup Fever!
At time of writing the track rating we'll end up with on Tuesday is anything but clear - because it's the Melbourne Cup.
It will be a genuinely wet track of some description - and with significant showers forecast to continue through Cup day, I'm looking for horses that really like to get their toe in.
What new chapter of Cup folklore are we to witness on Tuesday?
Al Riffa (Wootton Bassett) is very obviously a special horse but I just can't have him with 59kg from barrier 19 on wet ground, though he seems to handle it okay. If he wins he's a deadset freak.
Buckaroo (Fastnet Rock) is an absolute ripper - he's got the WFA form, gets his preferred soft track and should get a better run this year.
But he didn't see the trip out strongly last year - and even if he's parked more forward this time, with 57kg up from 54.5 I feel he will run well and finish top five/six - maybe even look the winner at some point in the straight - but might be overhauled late.
Vauban (Galiway) is back again - if anyone can get a Cup out of him it's Gai Waterhouse - as is Absurde (Fastnet Rock).
Half Yours (St Jean) goes to the trip for the first time, loves wet, is drawn well, has the right weight, great jockey, won the Caulfield Cup, big chance - deserving favourite!
But two miles is such a different race. When I see a first time 3200m runner that wins from 1400 up to 2400m and holds form around 1800-2000m, that's a red flag for me. Of course, Half Yours might just be a champion!
Then there's a bunch of raiders that haven't raced here. Any one of them could jump out of the ground and win - and the chances don't end there!
Top Tip: VALIANT KING
Valiant King was my great Cup hope of 2023 and I've been waiting for this moment since then!
He was a brave sixth for Aiden O'Brien in the Caulfield Cup that year. Alas - my potential winnings went down the tube as connections withdrew the four year old from the big one, feeling he was not yet ready for that challenge. (They were right of course).
“The connections” are headed by prominent Cup winner owner Ozzie Kheir and Qatar Bloodstock (also the owners of Buckaroo).
Transferred to Chris Waller, the handsome grey was back in the Spring but never really fired, finishing midfield in both Cups.
But he had something. He wasn't getting beaten like a horse that “couldn't stay” or lacked the class.
Finally came a glimpse of form with a good third in the G2 Chairman's 2600m in the Autumn, and then a foot issue put him out of the Sydney Cup.
Valiant King is now a fully matured six year old and this Spring we've finally seen the top class stayer that he was born to be - and was - back in GB.
The patience and genius of Waller and the magic of blinkers have done the trick!
Valiant King was awesome in the Bart Cummings - running a near course record off the hectic pace set by the King's horse Gilded Water - and superb in the Caulfield Cup.
He will meet the winner of that race 1.5kg better off despite finishing strongly just 1.5 lengths behind him.
Now that the rain has come, his chances improve even further. I know it's punting lore to dismiss horses that have run in past Cups unplaced- but times have changed, training methods have changed. Horses are changing too!
Valiant King was bred by The Assembly Partnership and is the first stakes winner out of the Candy Ride mare Assembly, a half-sister to Listed winner Seismic Wave and to the dam of G3 winner Verbal.
The Argentine-bred Candy Ride was an undefeated triple G1 winner on both dirt and turf.
He is an elite sire and sire of sires (his best to date US HOTY and stud sensation Gun Runner ) - with six Champions to his name.
Candy Ride is the grandsire of two G1 Preakness Stakes winners.
As a tail male descendant of the great Fappiano, Candy Ride was virtually guaranteed to be an elite broodmare sire as well - and his best in that capacity to date is Kentucky Derby / Preakness runner up Epicenter.
One of Candy Ride's most successful nicks has been Kittens Joy - Valiant King's grandsire through the ill fated European HOTY Roaring Lion.
Valiant King and fellow Cup hopeful Middle Earth are two members of his only crop, conceived in GB.
The magnificent grey stallion was shuttled to Cambridge Stud in NZ but was tragically lost to a severe bout of colic.
From that sole crop have come 8 stakes winners including French G1 winner Dubai Mile.
Valiant King's damline traces to Euphonic, a half sister by Nijinsky's three quarter brother The Minstrel, to the immortal Danehill.
Thus Roaring Lion's damsire Street Sense by Machiavellian creates a proven successful linebreeding to Blue Hen Almahmoud while from another line of this family (2-d, tracing back to Meteor) comes Kitten's Joy.
Valiant King's only five generation inbreeding is Northern Dancer 5m x 5m but he is an intensely linebred horse in further removes!
This pedigree brings together multiple lines of Mr Prospector with his relative Seattle Slew, and boasts three lines to the second dam of Slew's grandsire Boldnesian - the great American staying mare Alablue.
Masses of linebreeding to La Troienne also feature.
Valiant King's pedigree is shot through with duplications of great mares - and of course his own ancestress Almahmoud is one of the greatest of them all.
There is so much more going on in Valiant King's pedigree!
Suffice to say he is truly bred to be the fine, big-hearted stayer that he is and he's in cracking form, carrying 51 kg. This is his moment.
The beautiful grey will jump from barrier 10 for Jye McNeil
Will a King be crowned at Flemington?
Next best: PRESAGE NOCTURNE
Hmmm tipping a grey quinella - has that ever happened? But for me they are the two best chances in the race so I'm ignoring what the odds say about it!
French bred, Italian trained Presage Nocturne always had the Melbourne Cup as his goal - the Caulfield Cup was his tune up run after a freshen. Some tune up! The six year old stallion produced arguably the run of the race, absolutely steaming home to finish fourth, less than one and a half lengths from the winner.
This handsome son of Wootton Bassett is a real marathon athlete and 3200 suits far better than 2400m.. He drops from 57.5 to 55.5kg and thrives on wet tracks.
The Botti family are European training royalty and they will have Presage Nocturne peaking to run the race of his life.
Champion jockey Stephane Pasquiet is a journeyman and has ridden G1 winners all over the world at the biggest race meetings.
And the pedigree of Presage Nocturne is a beauty!
The grey was a cheap, immature yearling - he has been a late bloomer.
Allesandro Botti bought the ugly duckling because he had trained Presage Nocturne's half brother to win six races - and it didn't hurt that he was by the hottest sire on the planet.
Presage Nocturne's dam Kyurem was stakes placed in France and a daughter of champion miler Verglas, who briefly shuttled to Western Australia with good success
Kyurem is a half sister to the Gold Cup placed champion jumper Simenon (Marju) - fourth in Fiorente's Melbourne Cup!
Kyurem and Simenon were out of the Alzao mare Epistoliere, and her dam Epistolienne by Law Society produced G2 winners Epistolaire and Epitre.
This is the immediate family of G2 Nassau Stakes winning and G1 Epsom Oaks placed Acclimatise.
It's a family which goes back to the immortal Pretty Polly through Polly Flinders and her best daughter Arabella - thus, Presage Nocturne owns a female line that is second to none for Classic influence - and which forms the perfect foil for the Wootton Bassett brand of speed.
Presage Nocturne is bred
Mr Prospector 5m x 5f sex balanced
Northern Dancer 5m x 5m,5m
He is linebred to Petition and to the great Ribot son Tom Rolfe, to Grey Sovereign (all sex balanced) and to Secretariat /Sir Gaylord through Chief's Crown and Habitat, who are close genetic allies.
“Presage Nocturne"- it's a beautiful name for a grey horse - it means an omen, a harbinger, a portent of the night. The twilight hour.
Well the light will be a bit low at Flemington - even if the mood isn't!
Presage Nocturne and Pasquier should get a good run from barrier 9
Roughie: MIDDLE EARTH
Punters have dropped off Bucky’s younger half brother despite a cracking run in the MV JRA Cup when the blinkers went on.
The view seems to be that he's not a true stayer - but I'm at the opposite end of the spectrum - I think he is classy like his brother, but a far more dour conveyance.
His best performances in the NH (aside from his G2 Hardwicke Stakes placing at Royal Ascot) were at around 2800m.
Now, the blinkers! Middle Earth is a son of Roaring Lion, like Valiant King - who basically morphed into a different animal and a serious Cup hope when the blinkers went on.
Middle Earth was suddenly switched on at the Valley. Is there something Zabeel-ish going on with the progeny of Roaring Lion and blinkers? I really think there might be.
Flemington is the right track for this horse and he drops from 60 to 54.5kg. Though untried on heavy ground - on breeding at least I see it as a plus for him.
The six year old was gelded before coming into Ciaron Maher's care.
Raced previously by Qatar Racing, who still retain a share in his ownership, Middle Earth now runs for a big group of Maher stable clients.
Middle Earth’s dam Roheryn is by Galileo out of the G3 winning More Than Ready mare La Chunga.
We saw what More Than Ready can do as a broodmare sire of stayers when Knight's Choice won the Melbourne Cup last year.
As well as G2 winner Middle Earth and G1 WFA winning / Caulfield Cup / Cox Plate runner up Buckaroo (Fastnet Rock) - multiple Group placed Roheryn is the dam of stakes placed filly Siege Of Troy (Siyouni)
La Chunga was a G3 winner and placed in the G2 Lowther Stakes.
She was out of the winning mare Gypsy Monarch (Wavering Monarch), a half sister to three stakeswinners from the good producer Gypsy Miss who was a half sister to G1 Hollywood Derby winner Steve's Friend.
This female line descends from Kithara (bred 3m x 3f to Selene) tracing back to Shady who was bred 3f x 2f to her own ancestress Sylvabelle.
Sylvabelle was a half sister to two Ascot Gold Cup winners. She is everywhere in American pedigrees through her famous grandson Broomstick.
Middle Earth is bred
Sadler's Wells 4m x 3m
His pedigree brings together the relatives Mr Prospector /Seattle Slew and Majestic Prince / His Majesty.
He carries many prominent lines to the family of La Troienne and linebreeding to three quarter sisters Natalma (sex balanced) and Cosmah, the dam of Halo (sex balanced), and a multitude of avenues to Tom Fool (sex balanced).
I reckon two miles is actually in his preferred wheelhouse distance wise.
Middle Earth couldn't be any fitter and Ethan Brown has options from barrier 13. He'll be back with the pack somewhere but the wet track will be slowing up a lot of tired horses as they enter the straight - and the real stayers will get their chance to shine.
Blowout: CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (IRE)
The wet track is going to suit this fellow also, who won the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2022 at three (coming off a fifth in the Derby) and was placed in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at the same meeting last year.
Changingoftheguard is owned by Cups collector Lloyd Williams, son Nick and a big cohort of owners. He travelled to Australia with another Williams purchase from the Aiden O'Brien stable, Adelaide River - who went out and turned the Caulfield Cup into an extraordinary staying test last month!
Both horses are trained by Kris Lees. Though now a seven year old, this son of Galileo has only had 17 starts - and has earned $757,850.
I like what he's done in Australia under big weights at G3 and Listed level - and he was unlucky not to win over 2500m at Flemington with 60kg (albeit in far lesser company), but that's a nice little box ticked there.
Most of all I like his breeding. His damsire Excellent Art was a great racehorse and more importantly he - and his progeny - are mudlarks of the highest order!
Changingoftheguard is one of two stakes winners for his dam Lady Lara and he hails from the immediate family of Mahler (also by Galileo, third in Efficient's Melbourne Cup) which goes back to the Green Dancer mare Dancing Rocks, placed in a G1 Coronation Stakes and also ancestress of G1 winners and sires Footstepsinthesand, Pedro The Great and Power.
Her grand dam was Crenelle - a stakes winning full sister by Crepello out of dual Oaks winner Mulberry Harbour to the grand old NZ stallion Crest Of The Wave who appeared in many a good staying pedigree.
Mulberry Harbour was the second dam of the Italian champion colt Cerreto and a half sister to the grand dam of the immortal NZ sire Summertime.
This is the family of Malva - her son Blenheim became a breedshaper through his sons Mahmoud, Whirlaway and Donatello II (a key presence in Galileo's dam) - and his greatest daughter Mumtaz Begum, the dam of Nasrullah and second dam of Royal Charger.
Crenelle was bred 4m x 4f to Malva.
Changingofthguard's damlines contain within five generations - Pivotal, Seeking The Gold, Secretariat, Selkirk, Mill Reef's great son Reference Point, Nijinsky's classic son Green Dancer, Grey Sovereign, and Crepello. Add the Galileo factor and that's some serious genetic firepower!
Like most of the more dour Galileos, Changingoftheguard will just go and go and keep on going, that's why the wet track plays to his strengths.
They're not plodders, they lack for nothing in class, nor in speed. They lack acceleration, but that's not a burning issue in the “last horse standing” affair that a wet Cup tends to be.
The best chance for Changingoftheguard is to do what his stablemate Adelaide River did in the Caulfield Cup and go forward - but with more sanity and a mindset that doesn't require the horse to be the second coming of Phar Lap.
Cross and lead or (preferably) sit up there second or third, let him roll and he will be in it for a very long way - maybe all the way!
Changingofthguard drops from 60kg in his good Geelong Cup sixth to a mere 53kg, and with jockey Tim Clark aboard the son of Galileo will jump from barrier 24.
