Breeding To Win- 2025 G1 Caulfield Cup

Kat Webster - Friday October 17

While the Everest party for the glam sprinters is going full bore in Sydney, Melbourne will be decked out in full finery to celebrate the first of its two iconic and venerable Cups.

It's a great contrast! All who love racing are in for a ripper of a day, and we'll be watching on as turf history is made in two states.

It hasn't been the greatest couple of weeks for the MRC off the track. But all that pales into insignificance when 18 gleaming, jig jogging thoroughbreds leave the mounting yard and head down to the famous 2400m start. This is what racing is all about.

The inaugural Caulfield Cup winner was the famous Newminster in 1879.

It was the highlight of his eventful life which saw him orphaned at birth, shot at, poisoned by a corrupt stablehand and who knows what else.

A household name in his day, Newminster's survival of two assassination attempts to emerge triumphant with the Cup saw his old stable at Point Cook become a kind of shrine that visitors flocked to for many years.

The $5million G1 race is always an amazing spectacle, and is one of the world's toughest and richest 2400m handicaps.

Many of our early turf legends won it - Poseidon, Eurythmic, Whittier, Manfred, Amounis, The Trump, Rivette, Beaulivre, Tranquil Star, Royal Gem.Tulloch, Even Stevens, Galileo, Tobin Bronze, Big Philou…and more recently Mummify, Elvstroem, Viewed, Dunaden, Admire Rakti, Verry Elleegant to name but a few memorable champions..….

Rising Fast won the Caulfield Cup twice!

Rising Fast in 1954 remains the only horse to win the two Cups and Cox Plate in one year, and won the 1956 Caulfield Cup as well.(He was a Karaka graduate and you can read more on him here).

Mares were on a hot streak in the 1970s with Leilani, Analight and How Now winning in consecutive years - and it was happy days for backers of greys!

Bart Cumming's beloved Ming Dynasty picked up two Caulfield Cups - Taksan won in between Ming's victories, and Silver Bounty won the year after his second!

Since the 1980s Gurner's Lane, Let's Elope, Doriemus, Might And Power, Ethereal and Without A Fight are the only horses to do the coveted Caulfield / Melbourne Cup double.

Might And Power's thoroughly frightening front running demolition job in the 1997 Caulfield Cup was perhaps the greatest victory of all time.

Northerly was the first horse to take the Caulfield Cup / Cox Plate double since Tobin Bronze in 1957, and the legendary West Australian had to lug 58kg to win the Cup - that was an extraordinary achievement in itself, but to then back up and win the Cox Plate- freak material.

In 2025 we’ve got a fascinating line up as usual!

Japan have the great unknown quantity - the talented, immensely quirky grey mare Golden Snap.

Sired by the beloved but erratic champion Gold Ship, she is her father's daughter.

 Nobody, least of all Golden Snap herself, knows what she's going to do when the gates open and she jumps from barrier 18 - and in what state will madam be arriving at the barriers? She's a wildcard, but she's a Japanese stayer and that spells danger. Japan's Mer De Glace won from barrier 17 in 2019.

Race favourite Half Yours (St Jean) is drawn and weighted to win. The rejuvenated Vauban (Galway) has to carry 58.5kg but has the  Waterhouse/Bott polish on him these days.

Others well in the market are the Frankel -sired raider Meydaan and the impressive last start G1 Metropolitan winner Royal Supremacy (Make Believe) but there are many more with genuine chances!

Here's what I've come up with.

Adelaide River (IRE) is yet to win in Australia, can he change that on Saturday? - image Bradley Photos

Top pick: ADELAIDE RIVER

This year's Cup features two sons of the great racehorse Australia - the regally bred product of two champions in the incomparable Galileo and the mighty Cape Cross daughter Ouija Board - twice European HOTY and G1 winner in Hong Kong, USA, Ireland and GB.

Ouija Board went right on with it at stud, producing not only her Epsom /Irish Derby and Juddmonte International Stakes champion Australia, but multiple stakes winning, G1 placed  Frontiersman and Voodoo Prince - who raced in Oz and won a G3 Easter Cup at Caulfield!

Australia is a serious G1 sire and in form too having sired the 2025 Epsom/Irish Derby hero Lambourn and this year’s G1 Coronation Stakes victress Cercene.

He has had moderate success as a sire here and is yet to have a major race winner in his namesake country - could that be about to change?

Adelaide River races for a syndicate headed by Cups collector Lloyd Williams and his son Nick.

The horse was purchased out of the Aiden O'Brien stable with Changingoftheguard - they travelled to Australia together and both were placed in the care of champion Newcastle trainer Kris Lees.

Adelaide River is a very big horse and was gelded before commencing his current campaign.

I think his form is a lot better than it looks. He had solid excuses in both his first Australian runs in QLD.

He next appeared to run an excellent close sixth in the Chelmsford behind Buckaroo, then got fired up and ruined his chances from gate 16 in the 2000m Kingston Town.

After a solid fourth in the G1 Might And Power at the same distance, the big boy was spelled and had the ultimate gear change.

He's not  a WFA horse in the classic sense - he's a natural, fast staying type soon readied for a genuine stamina test, and it's a good profile for a Caulfield Cup winner.

After three impressive trial victories, Adelaide River resumed in an unsuitable 1400m race on a heavy track at Rosehill carrying 60kg. He was wide and working hard in the run, but not far away.  Cup rivals Birdman and Land Legend were placed but he meets them better treated at the weights this time.

Second up in the Chelmsford he got far out of his ground but made up some lengths and it was definitely a pass mark behind the likes of form horses Lindermann and Sir Delius.

Third up Adelaide River produced a great run in the Kingston Town, fighting super hard after being headed to just go down to Birdman in the last gasp.

To the G1 Turnbull and he led, kicked, but was inevitably overhauled by WFA heavyweights Sir Delius, Antino and Via Sistina, finishing seventh.

I reckon this horse is actually ticking over beautifully for a Cups tilt, and now we get into his wheelhouse at 2400m!

Let's not forget Adelaide River is three times G1 placed in the NH.

His closing second in the Irish Derby was to superhorse Auguste Rodin-  and while he had been found wanting at Epsom behind that colt, he did put up a strong rallying performance for a long way.

Adelaide River embarked on his Australian adventure after winning the G3 Paddy Power Stakes at Leopardstown.

He’ll enjoy a fast run Cup, so as to tap into that American brand of sustained speed he inherits from his damsire, the great War Front.

War Front was the sire of G1 Underwood / Australian Cup winner Homesman who was beaten a nose by Best Solution in the Caulfield Cup

 His son Declaration Of War has sired numerous G1 stayers including Aussie Melbourne Cup hero Vow And Declare.

Adelaide River is bred

Northern Dancer 4m x 4m,5m

Danzig 5m x 3m,5f sex balanced

His dam Could It Be Love (War Front) was  a hard-knocking, talented race mare who found it hard to win. Stakes placed six times, the undoubted highlight of her career was her G1 second to the freakish Alpha Centauri in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

She has also produced the Listed winning filly Everlasting (Kingman)

Could It Be Love is a half sister to US Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and champion sire Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)

Uncle Mo shuttled here without a lot of success but ranks among the absolute elite in the US.

Adelaide River's female family packs some serious genetic power.

His second dam is the stakes placed Playa Maya by the excellent sire Archthe only foal produced by her dam Dixie Slippers (Dixieland Band)

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This female line has a history of producing tough handicappers as well as Classic performers and is a branch from the Blue Hen Rowes Bud, the ancestress of Be My Guest, Storm Cat and Royal Academy.

We know how much Galileo loves the family through his famed nick with Fastnet Rock, and he has also worked extremely well with Storm Cat. 

 Australia loves duplications of Danzig including Green Desert, his all important broodmare sire line through Cape Cross.

What's very likeable about this pedigree is the pattern formed by Danzig son War Front over a mare by Arch - his dam is out of the Danzig daughter Aurora, a three quarter sister to Green Desert.

The legendary Cape Cross is the damsire of 2024 Caulfield Cup winner Duke De Sessa.

Adelaide River is strongly linebred to Menow, the tail male line of Adelaide's third damsire Silly Season by Tom Fool - and to Tom Fool's relative Pompey.

From barrier 9, Jordy Childs can get Adelaide River into a good possie near the pace, let him bowl along and be right there waiting to challenge when the pressure goes on!

Middle Earth (GB) - image Grant Courtney

Next best: MIDDLE EARTH

Like Adelaide River, Middle Earth is just busting to get over 2400m and further. Buckaroo's little half brother is ready to peak fourth up after a slashing first up effort at Caulfield behind Cup rival Revelare (So You Think) - and two runs at WFA, the last a pleasing effort in the Turnbull (from a Cups perspective)

His GB form is really good especially his close G2 Hardwicke Stakes third at Royal Ascot - that race has been a good Cups guide over the years.

The six year old son of the ill fated Roaring Lion has only had six lifetime starts, and was gelded before coming into Ciaron Maher's care.

Raced previously by Qatar Racing, who still retain a share in his ownership, Middle Earth now runs for a big group of Maher stable clients.

Last Autumn the trainer remarked how much furnishing and improvement were still to come from his new charge, whose owners have been very patient.

It might be about to pay off!

Middle Earth’s dam Roheryn is by Galileo out of the G3 winning More Than Ready more La Chunga.

We saw what More Than Ready can do as a broodmare sire of stayers when Knight's Choice won the Melbourne Cup last year.

Roaring Lion only had one crop of foals with GI winner Dubai Mile the best of them. His progeny can improve spectacularly over a trip - Middle Earth's Caulfield Cup rival Valiant King gave a recent demonstration of that at his last start.

Middle Earth is bred

Sadler's Wells 4m x 3m

His pedigree brings together the relatives Mr Prospector /Seattle Slew and Majestic Prince /  His Majesty.

He carries many prominent lines to the family of La Troienne and  linebreeding to three quarter sisters Natalma (sex balanced) and Cosmah, the dam of Halo (sex balanced), and a multitude of avenues to Tom Fool (sex balanced).

Middle Earth jumps from barrier 3 for Mark Zahra - a mixed blessing. He has to go back, so hopefully gets a nice economical run before finding a clear path to the line…or swoops down the outside!

Zardozi will be looking to recapture her best form - image Grant Courtney

Roughie: ZARDOZI

What a trooper this girl is,

A G2 Edward Manifold /G1 VRC Oaks winner (just pipped in the AJC Oaks too) - a quality G1 open WFA performer, and fourth in both Cups last year.

The daughter of eminent sire Kingman is now five and this time she comes to the Caulfield Cup without having run at 2400m beforehand - I think that's the key for her, and I think she's a great chance of getting into the frame!

Now trained by Ciaron Maher, Godolphin's Zardozi has been pure class and quality from day one and her blood is as blue as those famous silks she carries.

Zardozi is bred

Mr Prospector 5m x 5m

Dancing Brave 4f x 5f

Shirley Heights x 5m,5m

The linebreeding to daughters of Lyphard’s memorable Arc winner Dancing Brave which occurs in combination with a sex balance of the great Mill Reef is surely the X- factor in her pedigree.

She is linebred to Never Bend (sex balanced),and her fourth damsire Sadler's Wells provides a line of his half brother Bold Reason.

Zardozi has drawn a nice spot in 11 for Harry Coffey - her fourth up run is always her best run, and significant gear change -  she gets the blinkers on!

Blowout: PRESAGE NOCTURNE

This handsome grey son of Wootton Bassett is unwanted in betting and it's understandable. He will have to be at least as good as Best Solution in 2018 if he is to carry 57.5kg to victory.

He's a backmarker.  His jockey has never ridden in Australia, let alone in one of our big Cups. His trainer Alessandro Botti is a first time “raider” too.

On the other hand - his recently deceased sire was a freak and has the current Melbourne Cup second favorite Al Riffa amongst a plethora of NH stakes winners this season.

His champion jockey Stephane Pasquiet is a journeyman and has ridden G1 winners all over the world at the biggest race meetings. He's not going to be intimidated by this challenge.

The famed Botti dynasty certainly lacks for nothing regards training chops and Alessandro's cousin Marco nearly pulled off an upset in the Melbourne Cup with Jakkalberry, after that horse was poleaxed in the Caulfield Cup and put out of contention.

They are a peerless tribe of horsemen -  I'm prepared to assume Alessandro has a very good idea of what sort of horse to bring on a Cups mission!

Race videos of Presage Nocturne have impressed me, something about the way this horse moves - he looks like a really classy athlete.

 Finally, his pedigree is a beauty, although the grey was a cheap, unattractive, immature yearling and has been a late bloomer.

Botti bought the ugly duckling  because he had trained Presage Nocturne's  half brother to win six races - and it didn't hurt that he was by the hottest sire on the planet.

Presage Nocturne is bred

Mr Prospector 5m x 5f sex balanced

Northern Dancer 5m x 5m,5m

He is linebred to Petition and to the great Ribot son Tom Rolfe, to Grey Sovereign (all sex balanced) and to Secretariat /Sir Gaylord through Chief's Crown and Habitat, who are close genetic allies.

“Presage Nocturne"-  a beautiful name for a grey horse - it means an omen, a harbinger, a portent of the night.

The lightly raced 6YO entire was strong late through the line in the G2 Prix Kergolay off a pretty farcical tempo, is G1 placed, improves second up and has placed both starts at 2400m.

Though the Melbourne Cup is obviously the main target, Presage Nocturne has drawn to get a good run from barrier 8 -  and it won't be a surprise if he is absolutely charging to the line.

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