Autumn Glow Epsom Challenge - Just How Big Is This Task?

With the unbeaten Autumn Glow set to run as the first odds-on favourite this century in the Epsom Handicap on Saturday we thought we’d run some data to see how big this mountain is that she’s attempting to climb, and turns out, it’s pretty big.

She’ll be running as a four-year-old mare, with clearly elite talent but some obvious questions to ponder centre around the fact she has never raced at the mile, she’s only raced six times, never tackled Group I company, has 54.5kg, and coming off a 1300m lead up run.

We went back to turn of the century.

So has a horse won the Epsom with seven or less starts?

Yes – twice. Secret Admirer in 2011 and Desert War in 2004, both having their seventh starts.

Has a horse won the race at their first 1600m attempt?

No. There has certainly been a few try but none were particularly fancied in the market so the expectations weren’t high.

Has a horse won off the 1300m lead up run?

Yes. Final Fantasy in 2001 and Winx in 2015.

Probably worth noting Final Fantasy had raced 16 times at a mile or further previously and had finished 4^th in the 2000m Queen Elzabeth Stakes two starts prior.

Winx had raced five times at a mile or further previously, winning twice including the 2200m Qld Oaks.

So now we get to the weight.

Four-year-olds have won the Epsom 11 times this century. Only one has carried more weight – Winx. 57k in 2015.

She went into the race as a seven-time winner including once at Group I level, three times at Group II.

However, the weights that year were raised by 4kg. Winx’s original handicap was 53kg.

It’s worth noting Secret Admirer, a four-year-old mare having her seventh start was handicapped on 52.5kg, having won the Group One Flight Stakes at three.

And the only other four-year-old mare to win is Probabeel in 2020.

She also carried 52.5kg, having won the Group I Surround Stakes at three and finishing 2^nd in the Group I Flight Stakes and Vinery Stud Stakes.

Only two other mares have been asked to carry 54.5kg – Foxplay who finished fourth to Happy Clapper in 2017, and Lotteria who finished third in 2005.

Foxplay went into the race as a five-time winner, once at Group I level, twice at Group II.

Lotteria as a seven-time winner including the Group I Flight Stakes.

Fangirl was given 54kg in 2022, going into the race also as a five-time winner including at Group I level.

Hungry Heart as another example carried 52kg in 2021 after winning the Group I Australian Oaks, Group I Vinery Stud Stakes and Group II Phar Lap Stakes in her previous preparation.

Which by our calculations makes Autumn Glow the equal highest weighted four-year-old mare this century and she’s not even tried Group I racing yet.

We’re not trying to shoot Bambi here but if Autumn Glow indeed gets this job done and makes it seven from seven, make no mistake it will be one of the great performances.