Greg Polson previews Forbes Monday August 7

Greg Polson - Monday August 7

The statistics, weights and measures totally confused this writer's analysis of Monday's Forbes Cup so relying on recent form looks the way to go.

Advertisement
Photo: Darryl Sherer

The Peter J Morgan-trained Zarlu and the Chris Heywood-trained Leucura provided the quinella in the 2016 Cup with Zarlu prevailing by just under two-lengths.

The weights for Monday's Bankstown Sports Club Forbes Cup (1600m) make for interesting reader compared to the 2016 edition.

Zarlu carried 54kg to win in 2016 and will have the same weight in 2017 whilst Leucura carried 54.5kg in 2016 and will have to shoulder 62kg if he is to go one better this year.

That's a huge 7.5kg weight differential in Zarlu's favour.

The historical analysis of the Forbes Cup since 2009 only adds to the confusion.

Six of the last seven winners have carried 54.5 kg or less to victory but of the three horses that carried more than 60kg, Sonro was able to win in 2014 lumping 61kg whilst Testascana finished runner-up in 2013 with 61.5kg on his back.

I admit to being somewhat confused assessing the chances of Leucura in the Cup with $2.70 being offered in early Sportsbet betting markets.

An analysis of Leucura's form certainly shows why he is so prominent in early betting.

Leucura carried 59kg to win the Parkes Cup over the mile on May 21 defeating one of his rivals on Monday in Our Sarastro with 1kg between them at the weights and they have the same weight differential on Monday so its advantage Leucura over that galloper.

Leucura is a last start winner by close to six-lengths at Narrandera and was placed at Canterbury between the recent victories.

He is drawn to get a lovely run just behind the speed and excels in soft track conditions.

After plenty of head scratching this analyst is going with Leucura expecting to get a touch better than the $2.70 as the day progresses but cannot forget the stats and weights and will be having a saver on Zarlu at $15.

Advertisment
More Reading...
Wakefield Gears Up for Another Busy Season
Wakefield Stud is preparing for another busy breeding season in 2025, as the business continues its re-emergence in the industry after coming under new ownership in 2024.
Sires With Winners - Sunday July 27
Here is the full list of 54 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
Closer Look at Written Tycoon – The Golden Crop Delivers
The sun might be setting on the stud career of Written Tycoon, but he’s not going into the twilight years quietly and is set to be crowned Champion Australian 3YO Sire this season, which is probably something predicted by many when he got the opportunity of a lifetime to cover at Arrowfield Stud for one season in 2020.
New G1 Winner for Too Darn Hot
Fresh from siring two new stakes-winners in Europe on Saturday Too Darn Hot (GB) kept the momentum going on Sunday with a new Group I winner and Tornado Alert is a half-brother to Just Fine (IRE), winner of the Group I ATC The Metropolitan in 2023.
Beaufort Downs Celebrate Stakes Success with Platinum Diamond
A pedigree close to the hearts of Beaufort Downs has added another black-type strike to the North Canterbury farm’s roll of honour.
Sires With Winners - Monday July 28
Here is the full list of 23 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
Zousain Sunday 2YO Double
Zousain is surging to the end of the season with a double of new 2YO winners on Sunday bringing his seasonal tally of juvenile winners to 13.
Sires With Winners - Tuesday July 29
Here is the full list of 22 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
Stallion Shares in Cool Aza Beel Offer Rare Opportunity via Magic Millions Virtual Sale
Breeders will have a timely chance to invest in one of Australia’s most exciting young stallions next week, with two individual stallion shares in Cool Aza Beel to be offered via the Magic Millions Virtual Sale on Tuesday, August 5.
Savabeel Stakes-Winner in the Making
A patient approach with Force Of Nature is being rewarded in spades, with the son of Savabeel winning his way toward black-type assignments.