The statistics, weights and measures totally confused this writer's analysis of Monday's Forbes Cup so relying on recent form looks the way to go.
The Peter J Morgan-trained Zarlu and the Chris Heywood-trained Leucura provided the quinella in the 2016 Cup with Zarlu prevailing by just under two-lengths.
The weights for Monday's Bankstown Sports Club Forbes Cup (1600m) make for interesting reader compared to the 2016 edition.
Zarlu carried 54kg to win in 2016 and will have the same weight in 2017 whilst Leucura carried 54.5kg in 2016 and will have to shoulder 62kg if he is to go one better this year.
That's a huge 7.5kg weight differential in Zarlu's favour.
The historical analysis of the Forbes Cup since 2009 only adds to the confusion.
Six of the last seven winners have carried 54.5 kg or less to victory but of the three horses that carried more than 60kg, Sonro was able to win in 2014 lumping 61kg whilst Testascana finished runner-up in 2013 with 61.5kg on his back.
I admit to being somewhat confused assessing the chances of Leucura in the Cup with $2.70 being offered in early Sportsbet betting markets.
An analysis of Leucura's form certainly shows why he is so prominent in early betting.
Leucura carried 59kg to win the Parkes Cup over the mile on May 21 defeating one of his rivals on Monday in Our Sarastro with 1kg between them at the weights and they have the same weight differential on Monday so its advantage Leucura over that galloper.
Leucura is a last start winner by close to six-lengths at Narrandera and was placed at Canterbury between the recent victories.
He is drawn to get a lovely run just behind the speed and excels in soft track conditions.
After plenty of head scratching this analyst is going with Leucura expecting to get a touch better than the $2.70 as the day progresses but cannot forget the stats and weights and will be having a saver on Zarlu at $15.
