Welcome to Weekend Winners, your one-stop tipping sheet for Saturday's big meetings.
STAR BET – REBELLIOUS LORD (Flemington - Race 7 No. 13) – This lightly raced four-year-old won his first two starts in comfortable fashion then came to town and arguably should have beaten Portman over 1400m here after being held-up at a vital part of the straight. Attacked the line once clear which suggests the mile will be right up his alley. Most importantly drops from BM 84 grade to BM 70 and with the 1.5kg claim for Ben Thompson, carries only 57kg. The early money has arrived and we suggest going with the flow.
VALUE TIP – XEBEC (Flemington – Race 6 No. 5) – Keen for an each-way go here with as much as $23 on offer. This Chris Waller-trained import has had four runs in Oz, with his only decent effort coming on a good track at Flemington. That was over 2000m when strong to the line. Simply doesn't go on soft or heavy ground so can forgive his three poor efforts and bank on the Flemington run. Gets back to Flemington on a good surface, gets out to 2500m and in a race which looks to be run at a genuine clip, this could be a battle of the best stayer. We're expecting Xebec to stay all day.
CARNIVAL FORM TIP – HAVASAY (Doomben Race 8 No. 1) – The Grafton carnival always has plenty of depth and this year was no exception. The Liam Birchley-trained Havasay was well supported first-up and did the job in fine style winning the 1200m Class 6 sprint. Comes back to a set weights Class 3 on Saturday and from gate one with the 1.5kg claim for Matt McGillivray looks poised to win again.
LAST CHANCE CHARLIE TIP – CHARLIE BOY (Doomben Race 9 No. 1) – At his first run for the Tony Gollan stable, Charlie Boy was nosed out after looking all over the winner. We had him picked here at Weekend Winners and debate ensued whether we would give him another chance. But if you concede that Charlie Boy can only strip fitter for that run, then you would have to butter-up with the tempting odds on offer. A soft draw and a 1.5kg claim for Alannah Fancourt. It may be his final chance, but we'll give him his shot.
HEAVY GOING TIP – HE'S A GIVEN (Randwick Race 3 No. 4) – The winter rain was always going to arrive leading into a Randwick meeting and that is what has happened. Some horses will relish the rain though and He's A Given is one of them. Heavy track stats read (4:3-1-0). Wasn't far off Kings Of Leon when resuming so strips fitter second-up, has the right draw and races at his pet distance. Bookmakers have been slow to react to the track downgrade. Perhaps they are expecting the track to dry out with sunshine predicted Friday and Saturday. Tell them they're dreaming.
FIT 'N FORM TIP – MANA (Randwick Race 9 No. 6) – Fitness plays a big role under any scenario but on a testing slow/heavy winter track it can often prove the difference. Mana comes into the last race at Randwick as surely one of the fittest horses in the field. Has had six runs this campaign, finishing in the money at his past four. The last time he struck a heavy track he won by 3-1/2 lengths and overall heavy track starts read (5:2-2-0). Add to the mix a lovely trail just behind a genuine tempo and Mana should be in the right spot to win turning for home. We expect he'll round out the day a winner.
PLACED TO WIN TIP – MOSS 'N' DALE (Morphettville Race 4 No. 1) – The Gelagotis stable has placed this horse to advantage throughout his 16-start career and have once again found the ideal race. Two runs back, Moss 'N' Dale was nosed out behind Liapari in a BM 85 at Rosehill and here he is in a BM 82 at Morphettville. Carries only 58kg after the claim, races handy so will be in the right spot and the biggest plus is the ground. It's going to be wet and that is perfect. Soft stats read well (4:2-1-0). Heavy stats read better (5:3-2-0).
BLETCHINGLY STAKES TIP – ABILITY (Sandown Sunday Race 7 No. 11) – The Robert Smerdon-trained Ability is flying this campaign and looks set to continue his winning run on Saturday. Maps to enjoy a gun trail in a genuinely run affair and despite jumping into weight-for-age company for the first time – this is a winnable Group III.
