Punters that plan to launch into the $2.15 favourite Pelethronius in the Coffs Harbour Cup on Thursday will be sobered by the fact that the North Coast track is somewhat of a graveyard for favourite punters.
Looking at the favourite stats since January 1, 2013 has the bells ring loudly warning of the chances of the David Pfieffer-trained Pelethronius chasing his fifth straight win in the Carlton Draught 2017 Coffs Harbour Gold Cup (1600m).
Consider the following.
Since January 1, 2013 the favourites winning strike rate for Coffs Harbour is close to the worst in Australia with just 22.6 per cent getting the money in that period compared to the national average of 33 per cent and it is the same when we break down the figures on a year to year basis with the best year during the period analysed being 2013 where the favourite strike rate was 26 per cent.
The favourite stats for the 1600m of Thursday's Cup are worse with just 18 per cent of favourites successful.
With Pelethronius being asked to shoulder 61.5kg it is worth noting no horse has carried that weight to victory over the mile in the period being tested.
The bell ringing is deafening.
Let's forget the stats for a minute and look at Pelethronius's claims to the race.
The five-year-old has a superb winning record winning seven of his 13 starts including the last four on trot culminating in a benchmark 85 at Randwick on July 22 carrying 58kg with his highest weight carried to victory being 59.5kg but it is worth noting Pelethronius missed a place in his two runs with more weight.
Where Pelethronius settles in the run is another concern jumping form an awkward barrier 9.
I am not potting Pelethronius, he may well overcome the hurdles and win the Cup easily but surely $2.15 is skinny odds.
Better value is an each-way bet on the Ken Lantry Egyptian Ruler who is a $17 chance in early betting.
Egyptian Ruler ran third in the 2016 Cup, drops 4kg on his third in the Sawtell Cup last start and has an excellent record over the mile with five of his seven career wins coming at the trip.
