I’m getting old and cynical and have been around this industry for what seems a long time, but somehow the magic of the Cup still gets to me and Cup Eve is something akin to Christmas eve for us adults that remember the racing world as it was last century.
This year’s Cup has a tail longer and bushier than a Maine Coon cat, but that makes it interesting in some ways as we all know a bolter will get into the placings and may even win…. it’s just a matter of picking which bolter, so let’s have a look and hopefully a laugh as you work down the list with me.
1/ Gold Trip (FR)(Outstrip) - Barring the freakish Makybe Diva, who won three Melbourne Cups in a row (2003 – 2005), you have to go a long way back to find a repeat winner and that’s Think Big (1974, 1975) and before him Rain Lover (1968, 1969). Those two horses won with light weights the first year and then came back to carry 58.5g and 60.5kg respectively. Gold Trip goes up only 1kg for winning last year and is flying, he can win!
2/ Alenquer (Fr) (Alderflug) – Won the Group I Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh in May 2022 and has not looked like winning since albeit has been set some tasks running in G1 company all the time until dropped back to G2 for Moonee Valley Cup when luckless and beaten three and a half lengths. Damien Oliver riding in his last Melbourne Cup and will give him every chance. Has never run over two miles, but German pedigree top and bottom would suggest that won’t be a problem.
3/ Without a Fight (IRE) (Teofilo) – Well fancied, but unplaced in Cup last year at his first run here, but has jumped out of the ground since then with three wins from four starts including last start Caulfield Cup in fast time. Mark Zahra won Melbourne Cup last year on Gold Trip and has gotten off him to stick with this horse after winning at Caulfield on him. Jockeys are notoriously bad judges and Gold Trip with J-Mac the pick up rider and gate two may have the last laugh.
4/ Breakup (Jpn) (Novellist) –You have to respect the Japanese! We saw it in the Golden Eagle and this horse went terrific in Caulfield Cup and will take huge improvement from that. He’s interesting on the pedigree front as he’s a rare Japanese stakes-winner that does not have Sunday Silence in him somewhere, that’s like finding an Aussie with no Danehill! What he does have is Monsun! His sire Novellist was a G1 winner in Europe at 2400m by Monsun, who has sired three Melbourne Cup winners – Protectionist, Fiorente and Almandin- that’s good enough for me!
5/ Vauban (FR) (Galiway) – He’s trying to do what Max Dynamite (placed 2015, 2017) could not quite do, which is win the Cup for Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins. He spent the first part of this year going over the hurdles and then won two races impressively on the flat – a handicap at Royal Ascot and the G3 Ballyroan Stakes beating Valiant King, who was sixth in the Caulfield Cup - booking his ticket to Melbourne. He can stay all day, but does he have the class to mix it with Gold Trip and Without a Fight? Jockey Ryan Moore on the other hand may have enough class for both of them.
6/ Soulcombe (IRE) (Frankel) – From the time he won the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the Cup Carnival last year this horse has been on the radar as a serious Melbourne Cup horse, but there is that little issue of him not getting out of the gates quickly. They don’t call Joao Moreira ‘the magic man’ for nothing and from gate three, he just needs to leave on terms and sit tight. On the pedigree front, he gets a big tick, by the world’s best sire Frankel from a grand-daughter of Monsun.
7/ Absurde (IRE) (Fastnet Rock) – He’s the travelling mate of Vauban and is another hurdler, repositioned as a handicap stayer and as a last start winner of the Ebor Handicap at two miles is definitely in the mix with Zac Purton to ride and a good barrier. Champion sire Fastnet Rock has sired 193 SW’s worldwide, 21 of them in races of 2300m or longer and 14 of them are among his Northern Hemisphere bred offspring, can he get a Cup winner? Of course he can and after watching the interview below you too will be cheering for Absurde.
8/ Right You Are (So You Think) Won a string of races earlier this year coming through the grades and not disgraced in G1 races past three starts including fifth in Caulfield Cup. First try at two miles and I think he’ll give it a red hot go based on pedigree. His sire So You Think ran third in this race and his dam Leica Ding won the Geelong Cup and is by Redding, who won the Victoria Derby and is by Nassipour (USA), who sired Let’s Elope to win the Cup in 1991. He’s also from the famed Leica family that includes Melbourne Cup place-getter Nothin’ Leica Dane.
9/ Vow and Declare (Declaration of War (USA)- Lining up for his fourth Melbourne Cup and looks to be going nearly as good as when he won the first of those in 2019 with 52kg and this year has 53kg. No weight and you know he’ll run the trip, but I can’t see him winning.
SCRATCHED 10/ Cleveland (IRE) (Camelot)
11/ Ashrun (Fr) (Authorized) – Australian Bloodstock colours on here and they are no strangers to success in this race either, although if Ashrun wins will be some story as he was tenth in the 2020 Cup behind Twilight Payment before having nearly three years off due to injury. Is he going better as an 8YO than he was as a 5YO, probably not.
12/ Daqiansweet Junior (NZ) (Sweet Orange (USA)- Kiwi stayer proven at the trip and was sixth last year, but can’t see him improving on that, although my lucky number is 12 and he’s also got barrier 12, so that’s hard to resist!
13/ Okita Soushi (IRE) (Galileo)- He sounds Japanese, but he’s actually an Irish bred son of Australian G1 winning mare Amicus and while he has won at two miles that was on the synthetic track at Dundalk, which is a bit different to the Melbourne Cup.
14/ Sheraz (Fr) (Sea the Stars) – Second in Sydney Cup last year, but lack of recent form and gate 22 make it hard to garner any enthusiasm.
15/ Lastotchka (Fr) (Myboycharlie)– Australian Bloodstock colours again on a young mare having her first run here after a last start G3 win at Longchamp over 3100m. By the same sire as champion Australian staying mare Jameka and warrants respect with Craig Williams to ride.
16/ Magical Lagoon (Galileo) – Won the Irish Oaks last year for Yulong and has not won a race since and unlikely to start on Tuesday. Interesting fact, the sire of Japanese runner Breakup is actually a half-brother to Magical Lagoon, who is going to be beautifully placed in the broodmare paddock.
17/ Military Mission (IRE) (Mastercraftsman (IRE) – The only grey in the race and for that reason alone a lot of people will back him and he’s a tough in form stayer with a tough in form jockey on board in Rachel King and has a good gate. Rachel won the Taree Cup on this horse last year over 2000m when he carried 63kg… surely this isn’t too much harder!!
18/ Serpentine (IRE) (Galileo) – Now here’s a horse that will have some stories tell when he’s an old man! He won the Epsom Derby in 2020 by five and a half lengths leading all the way as a 25-1 shot. Winners of this race include some of the greatest sires of our time including his sire Galileo, so Serpentine felt he’d done enough after that win, but unfortunately for him one swallow does not make a summer and more was expected.
He was acquired by Lloyd Williams, sent to Australia and duly gelded and after an unsuccessful Melbourne Cup campaign last year has found himself in the care of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, who were able to coax another win out of him at Eagle Farm in April. His recent form is not bad and he has barrier one, so if you like him I’m with you!
19/ Virtuous Circle (NZ) (Almanzor (Fr) – Hangs his hat on a second in the Australian Derby on a heavy track and that’s not going to be good enough for this.
20 More Felons (IRE) (Churchill) – Another hurdler trying his luck as a flat handicapper and his run at Geelong was not bad, but the outside gate has set Jamie Kah a task.
21/ Future History (GB) (Showcasing) – Tattersalls Autumn Horses in Training purchase last year for 140,000 guineas and at that point had not raced beyond 2100m and is by a sprinter in Showcasing, who is best known for his sprinter milers. He’s bred by Juddmonte Farms and his female family is top class featuring a slew of serious middle distance horses and if Hollie Doyle can give him a good run in transit, he’s going to have a lot better turn of foot than the hurdlers!
Also spare a thought for Adam Carney who paid $205,000 for a 10% share in this horse on Inglis Digital, read about it here.
22/ Interpretation (IRE) (Galileo) – Failed to finish in Melbourne Cup last year and while he did win the Bendigo Cup leading into this he’s a no from me.
23/ Kalapour (IRE) (War Command) – Another last start winner on Saturday of the G3 Archer Stakes, so on the quick back up but this is a lot harder.
24/ True Marvel (IRE) (Masked Marvel) – Two miles is his distance and he was second in the Sydney Cup this year. He’s also had a win over the hurdles at Hamilton in May before running third in the Brisbane Cup. If you want a rank outsider that can run the trip, he’s your man!
Tips
1/ Breakup
2/ Soulcombe
3/ Gold Trip
4/ Without a Fight
Roughies
Right You Are
Future History
