One of racing's greatest myths from a punting perspective is that maiden winners face a tough task going back to back immediately after their first career victory but there is one reason why and there is a perfect example at Scone on Monday.
I have used this analogy before but it is still valid today.
Does anybody want to question Chris Waller's training ability based on his winning strike rate?
Waller's winning strike rate Australia wide for the current racing season is 12.93 which doesn't put him in the top 10 trainers in Australia if strike rate was the determining factor.
There is one reason and one reason only why Waller's strike rate doesn't compare to other stables and that is because more often than not the stable has multiple runners in races.
So in simple terms, in ten races it is more than feasible that Waller could have twenty runners or more engaged and win five of the races.
That's a Waller horse winning 50 per cent of the races but his winning strike rate would show 25 per cent.
It is common to hear commentators quote a figure of 13-14 per cent success rate for maiden winners taking on class one company at their next start but this is identical to the Waller situation – invariably there are more than one maiden winner contesting class ones and the Exosphere @ Darley Stallions Class 1 Handicap (1000m) is an excellent example.
Three last start maiden winners will contest the race.
The Todd Howlett-trained All Stand who won a Muswellbrook maiden by over four-lengths last start, Dangerous Behaviour from the Kris Lees stable who resumes on Monday after winning her only start at Taree on January 31 and the Peter Robl-trained Winter Bride coming off a strong win at Nowra.
I have a leaning to Dangerous Behaviour over All Stand and Winter Bride but extremely confident one of the three will win.
There are plenty of horses that are simply not good enough to win more than one race so the key is to assess a maiden winner on their merit rather than be put off believing in some commentators myth that has no basis for fact.
Let's debunk this theory once and for all.
