Welcome to Weekend Winners, your one-stop tipping sheet for a big Saturday of Group I racing.
CAULFIELD CUP TIP – HARDHAM (Caulfield - Race 8 No. 12) – The general consensus of the Weekend Winners tipping team is the favourite Johannes Vermeer will be hard to beat but he’s short enough now so we’ve come up with one at big odds that will give a sight. Hardham is fourth-up on Saturday and fourth-up last prep he finished a close third behind Jon Snow in the Australian Derby, that was his only run at the 2400m trip. This time he gets 2kg weight relief from Jon Snow, a horse we concede has each-way prospects here. Hardham has drawn well in barrier 8, and his last two runs have been solid without being overwhelming. He’ll love the 5kg weight drop and at $51 he’s worth a small each-way ticket. We’d also suggest the $11 for him to run a place is an attractive bet.
STAR BET – KAONIC (Randwick - Race 2 No. 6) – He a good horse in the making this bloke and reminds us of progressive Chris Waller three-year-olds in past seasons like Kermadec and Comin’ Through - a late bloomer that has big things in store in the next 12-months. Kaonic is only having his third start on Saturday but the way he won last time out was impressive to say the least. He came from a mile back to gun down a tearaway leader and he did all the chasing himself. The mile and Randwick will suit him down to the ground and if we get a rain-affected track, his pedigree says that should be ok. We expect him to win here and probably head south for the Carbine Club Stakes on Derby day.
VALUE TIP – SHILLELAGH ( Caulfield Race 9 No. 13) – The shape of Saturday’s Tristarc Stakes could play right into the hands of this Chris Waller-trained mare. Her first-up run behind the flying Sir Plush in Sydney was very good and she should have finished much closer to the winner. This mare has won three of her four second-up runs, has solid figures at the 1400m trip and is proven in Melbourne during the spring, also a winner at Saturday’s track and distance. The Tristarc Stakes is race nine on Saturday and will be the 27th race run on the track in the past week, wind back the clock to last year’s carnival and Voodoo Lad won the last race over this trip when no closer than four wide throughout, swooping on them out wide in the straight. Shillelagh will get back on Saturday but there’s good speed in the race and the track should be playing in a manner to suit her pattern – here’s hoping that’s the case.
THE ROUGHIE – HIGHWAY SIXTYSIX ( Randwick Race 3 No. 16) – We need another scratching for this filly to secure a start in the Highway Handicap and if she gains a run, she’s massive, massive odds at $61. She’s a maiden only having her second start but the way she closed off on debut showed she’s a three-year-old with huge upside. She missed the start on debut and that was the end of the section as far as winning was concerned but she ran her last 200m in 4/10s of a second faster than any other runner in the race. Granted it was a maiden but that time difference is significant and shows her ability is clearly above that class of horse. If she gets a run and can stay in touch, it wouldn’t shock us if she was to prove too good in the run to the line and the odds are big.
THE LONGER THE BETTER TIP – MAIN STAGE ( Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) – You’d be a hard task master if you weren’t impressed with the way this three-year-old attacked the line when winning the UCI Stakes at his last run. They changed up the tactics and rode him more conservatively and boy oh boy, didn’t he deliver. Stepping up to 2000m would have to be more to his liking the way he closed off last time and the stable has shown time and time again they’re adept at training these young staying types. He’s the early Victoria Derby favourite and we expect him to sure that title up on Saturday.
THE WEIGHT TIP – DANISH TWIST ( Caulfield Race 6 No. 11) – I’d love to know the last time this Group I class mare carried 54kg? Actually, she had 54.5kg when she should have won the Coolmore earlier this year and had 54kg when she won the Dark Jewel at Scone last year. It’s almost 500 days since she last won a race but she won’t get a better chance than on Saturday and it’s not as if she’s been racing badly. It was a total forgive run first-up in the Sheraco Stakes then she closed off impressively in the Group II Golden Pendant, a race that was Group I mares’ class. Her 1400m record is excellent with four wins and four placings from 14 runs and they should be able to make ground out wide on Saturday. D-day for her but if the breaks go her way she’ll be hard to stop.
FORMLINE TIP – DAGNY ( Randwick Race 5 No. 9) – Quite surprised at the generous odds on offer for this Chris Waller-trained mare coming into this race with the solid Isorich form. Her two runs back have been tip top over sprint trips and now third-up she gets into her optimum distance range. Three 1400m starts have returned a win and two seconds and she’s finished in the money at two of her three Randwick runs. She’s drawn to get a soft run on Saturday and whatever the track gets thrown up as on Saturday, she’ll handle it. Can’t believe she’s each-way odds.
WOOLWORTHS TIP – MALAHAT ( Randwick Race 6 No. 5) – We get the feeling that fresh is best for this Godolphin colt and it looks like the trainer James Cummings agrees. His two wins have come first-up and second-up in the past and they’ve given him five weeks between runs since his solid two-length fourth behind his classy stablemate, the Weekend Winners favourite Viridine. Blew out the cobwebs with a soft trial recently and let’s not forget he started the $2.90 favourite in the Heritage Stakes last time. Now they’re betting as much as $6 and there’s no Viridine to contend with this week.
