With the likelihood of a wet track at Tamworth on Sunday there are a couple of important factors to take into consideration when analysing the form for the meeting.
On pace runners and inside barriers have a significant advantage on tracks rated 7-10 or slow-heavy as we use to know them.
Last start leaders win 24.5 percent of races at Tamworth on wet tracks for a profit on turnover of 4.9 percent compared to 20.2 percent winning strike rate on the drier surfaces and a 27.3 percent loss on turnover.
Barriers 1-4 win 41 percent of races and although losing in terms of profitability the results are still significantly better than barriers 5-14.
It is when the two factors are combined we see a huge jump in profitability with last start leaders launching from barriers 1-4 on wet ground producing a 73 percent profit on turnover since January 2013.
Two of our top three bets for Sunday fit the criteria perfectly.
AXEL BLING (Race 6 No 6)
Trained at Scone by Brett Cavanough who has a 27 percent winning strike rate at Tamworth since moving his training base from Albury, Axel Bling led all the way to win her maiden at Dubbo on September 29 having her fourth career start.
The daughter of Shaft relished the step up to 1300m and won in a manner that suggests the extra 100m won't be an issue and there is still plenty of scope for improvement.
Axel Bling should find the front comfortably launching from barrier four and is set for back to back wins in the Hygain Release Class 1 Handicap (1400m).
ALAKAI (Race 7 No 10)
The Bill Perrett-trained Alakai is still to be proven at 1200m but won't get a better chance to run the trip with conditions made to order in the Hygain Powatorque Class 3 Handicap.
Alakai was just over a length from the winner over the track and distance four runs back first-up when she weakened late to finish fourth.
Importantly Alakai has finished in the placing both times she has struck a heavy track.
With the speed map suggesting a high probability of Alakai getting an uncontested lead on Sunday, the mare looks genuine value at $8 in early betting markets.
VALREE (Race 2 No 10)
Ad Valorum mare Valree represents the Rod Northam stable in the Hygain Racetorque Maiden Plate (1400m) and just needs an even getaway to be winning.
Valree missed the kick both runs this preparation but has made up good ground in the straight on each occasion including Scone last start when she was less than two-lengths from the winner.
Valree is crying out for the step up in distance and it is worth noting she raced on the speed when runner-up at Quirindi on debut so racing back in the field is not necessarily her go.
Valree can be expected to be much closer in the run on Sunday if she jumps evenly and if that is the scenario she will take plenty of beating.
