The way I’m going in this column in the last month, I wouldn’t be surprised if I got Winx beaten on Saturday, but we’ll have another shot at profit at Flemington.
WEATHER WITH YOU (FLEMINGTON – Race 3 No 11)
This Kiwi three-year-old is a member of the Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman stable and showed enough ability to join the topliners Bonneval and Jon Snow in the Kiwi operation’s spring team and Weather With You has done OK in both Melbourne runs. He hit the line well at Sandown first-up and worked home OK at Flemington last time after over-racing in the early and middle stages. Baker has gone for the cross-over nose band for the son of Teofilo and the experience at Flemington will have done him good. I’m expecting him to announce himself as a genuine Derby chance on Saturday.
BET: WIN
ODDS $9 Ladbrokes, Bookmaker, Betstar
SILENT SEDITION (FLEMINGTON - Race 4 No 6)
Classy mare that hit the big time when winning the Group I William Reid Stakes last preparation in between outstanding efforts over longer trips in the Coolmore Classic and Queen of the Turf Stakes in Sydney. She is yet to miss a place first-up and has not finished further back than second in five runs over the 1200m. She is the type of mare that is getting better with age and she’ll roll forward and make her own luck in the Gilgai Stakes. A great chance first-up.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.40 @ Sportsbet, Luxbet
ANCHOR BID (FLEMINGTON – Race 6 No 3)
I’m a forgiving soul and I’m prepared to forgive Anchor Bid’s unplaced run over 1800m on this track last time out. Jockey Mark Zahra said she eased out to win this race but didn’t quite finish off and the daughter of High Chaparral did have a big blow after her sixth to the developing filly Pinot in the Oaks trial. Premier trainer Darren Weir has whacked the blinkers on and dropped Anchor Bid back to 1600m for the Edward Manifold Stakes. She gets a soft run from barrier four while her stablemate Leather’n’lace will need to do a bit of work from her wide gate, which will mean a bit of early pressure. I’m expecting Anchor Bid to be much fitter on Saturday and she can bounce back.
BET: WIN
ODDS $7 Ladbrokes, Sportsbet, William Hill, Unibet, Palmerbet, Bookmaker, CrownBet, Bet365, Betstar
HARLEM (FLEMINGTON - Race 7 No 3)
He takes on a Melbourne Cup winner in Almandin but it was hard not to be impressed with the way Harlem buried his opposition in the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield last time out. He came from just off the speed and really relished a smart tempo to sprint away and win easily, clocking a good time in the process. He’ll only be fitter for that and is capable of pushing Almandin with a 3.5kg weight advantage in his final lead-up to his guaranteed start in the Caulfield Cup.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4 @ Ladbrokes, Sportsbet, William Hill, Unibet, Palmerbet, Bookmaker, CrownBet, Betstar
