There are two $3 favourites in early betting at Port Macquarie on Monday and sometimes as punters we need to remind ourselves what the $3 price says about the chances of the horse we are about to invest on.
By the time a race starts the combined wisdom of punters arrives at the price of a horse which becomes it's starting price and year in year out $2 chances wins more races than $2.20 chances which win more races than $2.50 and so on which holds true right down to the roughies.
What we tend to forget and what we regularly need to remind ourselves is what these figures represent.
Any horse at a longer starting price than $2 has a higher probability of losing a race than winning.
When we invest on $3 chances in races we are investing our hard earned on a horse that has a one in three chance of winning or from the glass half empty perspective a two in three chance of losing.
A $10 chance has a one in ten chance of winning and a nine in ten chance of losing.
Sobering isn't it when we think in terms of probability.
With betting markets framed in bookmakers favour for obvious reasons to greater than 100 per cent it is not possible to back all $3 chances and win but at the shorter odds end of the market we don't need to eliminate many $3 chances to get into a profit situation.
The key is determining whether $3 is the correct price for a horse.
Two favourites at $3 present totally different profiles at Port Macquarie on Monday, One I want to be on and one I think punters should be looking for better than $3.
The one I will be swaying away from at the current price is the Allan Denham-trained Duck In Dubai who heads the markets at $3 for the Schweppes Benchmark 65 Handicap (1206m).
Duck In Dubai has won four races from his eight starts with each of the victories coming at distances 1100m or less with his four defeats coming at 1150m and 1200m.
His form to date suggests the 1200m is a genuine query.
I have no doubt he will win a race over 1200m or longer but the key is the price and at $3 I am prepared to oppose him but a $5 price later in the day which can happen would see me get interested.
Conversely the $3 quote for the John Sprague-trained Laurentian in the Prime7 Benchmark 55 Handicap (1006m) is at about his right price and therefore in my opinion backable.
Three wins from 21-starts, a 3kg apprentice on board and a wide gate would see many punters put a line through the horse but let's have a closer look at his form.
His three career wins have been at 1000m with the stats showing a substantially better strike rate at the trip with three wins and five placings from 14 starts at the trip.
Laurentian's good track record reads three wins three placings from 11 starts and his 1000m stats on good tracks is even better with three wins two placings from seven starts.
