Nothing I like more than attempting to debunk accepted theories in racing and with two four-horse fields at Kembla on Saturday I thought a look at the performance of favourites in small fields was timely.
"Small field outsider wins again” is a statement heard many times from commentators but how true is it?
There have been 136 races at Kembla since January 1, 2013 with six starters or less, the favourite won on 66 occasions (48.5 percent) resulting in a small loss on turnover of 3.6 percent.
Second favourites win 23 percent for a loss on turnover of 23.1 percent.
Third favourites win 11 percent for a 63.4 percent loss on turnover.
Often races with small fields lack genuine tempo and the horses racing closest to the speed are advantaged, indeed if you look at favourites likely to settle one two in the run in small fields the winning strike rate for favourites increases to 70 percent and a profit on turnover of 16.5percent.
Clearly favourites are not disadvantaged in small fields, they are performing better from a win and profitability perspective than favourites in larger fields so that’s another racing maxim that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
The favourite in one of the four-horse races is the day’s best bet at Kembla.
SHOCK ALERT (Race 2 No 3)
The Bjorn Baker-trained Shock Alert heads betting in the Mount Ousley CG&E Class 3 Plate (1600m) and is the horse to beat with only three rivals.
Twice a winner from eight career starts including a Kembla win resuming two runs back, Shock Alert is likely to settle second in the run trailing the expected leader Victime De L’Amour.
A last-start third at Canterbury beaten just over two-lengths in a benchmark 73 carrying 58.5kg looks a solid form reference for a set-weight provincial class three with Shock Alert carrying 3kg less in an arguably weaker race.
GRAND FINALIST (Race 7 No 2)
The omen tip for the day and is worth another chance after costing punters plenty last start when fourth at Hawkesbury as a $1.40 chance.
Stewards reported Grand Finalist finished the race lame which on its own would be enough to put a line through the run but I am also far from convinced the Waterhouse and Bott-trained three-year-old appreciated being ridden with a sit after leading at his first two outings.
Expecting Grand Finalist to take advantage of barrier two on Sunday and lead and if that’s the case I doubt his rivals can run him down.
LIGHTNING NIC (Race 8 No 3)
Lightning Nic from the Jason Coyle yard at Warwick Farm is ready to win peaking third-up in the Mount Burelli Maiden Handicap (1500m).
She wasn’t far from the winner in three metropolitan races in her first preparation and has been close-up both runs this time in at Goulburn and Newcastle.
The step up in distance suits Lightning Nic and with a 2.5kg weight drop on her latest outing is set to send punters home on a winning note at Kembla.
