Early betting for the third race at Port Macquarie on Sunday suggests only three horses can win but reckon the bookies have the market order wrong providing us with some value and looking to one of our most reliable trainers for our remaining two bets for the day.
RESTLESS (Race 3 No 6)
Early betting for the Stowe Poles and Wires CG&E Maiden Handicap (1106m) has the Tracey Bartley-trained Shepley a $2.80 chance at the head of proceedings with the former Michael Moroney-trained Chief Moondance having his first run for Barry Ratcliff second pick at $3.20 with Restless from the Paul Perry yard on the third line of betting.
Shepley finished a solid fourth at Kembla resuming from a 510-day break between races last start and looks a sure-fire winner this preparation but experience over the years suggest horses can race flat second-up from such a long break especially on a seven-day backup whilst Chief Moondance was placed twice in his six runs for Moroney at Moe and Warnambool but both the runs were on heavy ground so happy to risk at first run for a new stable on a good surface.
That leaves us with Restless who did a good job when third at Beaumont on debut finishing third to his stablemate San Francisco who added plenty of merit to the performance winning a Class One at Scone on Friday.
Reckon the bookies have this race wrong.
DYLAN'S DESTINY (Race 5 No 4)
We have sung the praises of Gosford trained Angela Davies many times in this column and she continues to deliver.
A winning strike-rate just under 25 percent over the last decade and over 31 percent for the last two racing seasons says it all and punters can bet with confidence when we see the name Angela Davies next to a runner in the race book.
Dylan's Destiny has just two wins from her 17 career starts but has been a consistent gelding finishing in the placings on an additional seven occasions but the record improves considerably on the good surface the gelding is likely to get at Port Macquarie on Sunday with both wins coming on top of the ground.
Dylan's Destiny will be second-up on Sunday after chasing home the unbeaten Osborne Bulls at Gosford after sitting wide in the run without cover and the win of the third horse So Sprited at Canberra on Friday added further merit to the performance.
Fitter second-up with the Davies polish and drawn to get all the favours in the run, Dylan's Dynasty stands out as the day's best bet.
THE BAKER (Race 4 No 3)
Dylan's Destiny's stablemate The Baker is another that will appreciate returning to a good track on Sunday.
The Baker has raced on four occasions with a Muswellbrook win and a runner-up finish resulting from his two-good track runs whilst the two efforts on soft and heavy ground saw the gelding perform well below his best.
The Baker hasn't raced for 72-days but has been to the trials in the interim and looks well placed in a country Class One.
As a rule, Davies only takes horses to the races when they are ready to win and in suitable races, that's enough for me.
