It's looks a tough day at the office at Scone on Friday with substantial weight, awkward barriers and first starters dominating the favoured runners so I've have looked for a bit of value arriving at our three plays on the day.
Favourites win one in three races, year in year out at tracks across Australia and is generally my starting point in analysing a race meeting but I couldn't find one favourite in the eight-race card on Friday that I would be prepared to back at the odds available in early markets.
I am certainly not potting them but the likes of Raiden has to carry 60.5kg on a track where horses carrying that weight and above have a winning strike rate of just 22.8 per cent, Makfi Lass is still to be proven at 1600m, another favourite has to overcome barrier 14, a couple of first starters dominate the opening race and others are up in grade.
Plenty of questions to be answered right across the program and the odds are just not there in the favoured runners.
My best advice for punters today is to tread warily where the favourites are concerned and remember a losing bet saved is the equivalent of a $2 winner but have come up with three non-favourites that I would be prepared to have something on.
LOZZA (Race 4 No 4)
The Carmen Murnane-trained Lozza takes on Makfi Lass in the Emirates Park Class Two Handicap (1600m) with both horses unproven at the mile. The speed map tips the scales in favour of Lozza with the gelding set to get an uncontested lead and will get every chance to run the journey right out.
NIKKAS 'N' A TWIST (Race 6 No 5)
Nikkas 'N' A Twist was a Tamworth maiden winner in his first preparation and did enough resuming at Beaumont finishing just over three-lengths from the winner on September 5 to suggest he is a value chance on Friday with the first-up run under his belt.
BAKSLAP (Race 8 No 3)
Robert Thompson rides Bakslap for Allan Denham when the gelding returns to racing in the Mikki Isle @ Arrowfield Benchmark 69 Showcase Handicap (1100m). A winner of four of his nine career starts, including two wins at Scone Bakslap finished on the placegetters heels in a race at Wyong when resuming last preparation and a similar effort first-up back to country grade would see the son of Congrats right in the finish.
