Horses for courses is a well-known maxim in racing and that saying is the basis of our best bets at Armidale on Tuesday.
The statistics reveal 30.9 percent of winners at Armidale since January 2013 had previously won at the course with the figures improving to a 34.3 percent winning strike rate and a profit on investment of 37 percent when the analysis is restricted to horses in the top three in betting.
With the statistics in mind we have settled on three bets on Tuesday.
ELEGIES (Race 7 No 2)
The Rod Hilton-trained Elegies takes the horses to courses theory to a new level with the gelding unbeaten at the Armidale circuit over the last two years.
Elegies has won four races from 22-starts since August 2015 with each of the victories coming over the 1900m at Armidale.
Elegies has had three runs this time in and showed a return to form at Goondiwindi when runner-up last start and is ready to fire back to his favourite track.
BALANTES (Race 5 No 8)
The Melissa Dennett-trained Balantes has won two races in her 16-start career with both the wins coming at Armidale including a victory over 1100m resuming last start jumping a grade to win in class two company carrying 52.5kg after the claim for apprentice Jackson Murphy.
Jackson has the ride again on Tuesday and Balantes will carry the same weight in the same grade of race.
Balantes does step up in distance on Tuesday but it is worth noting her other victory was over the 1400m at Armidale.
FASHION MODEL (Race 6 No 5)
Fashion Model from the Brett Dodson stable is a five-year-old who invariably needs a few runs in a preparation before she finds her best.
A close look at her career statistics backs up that assumption with Fashion Model's first three runs in a preparation producing no wins and just two placings from 13-starts with her record fourth-up and beyond showing four wins and three placings from 10 outings.
Fashion Model is fourth-up on Monday and was an easy winner at the track and distance last preparation.
In with a winnable weight after the 2kg claim for apprentice Cejay Graham and drawn to gets all the favours in the run from barrier two, Fashion Model looks set to return to the winner's list.
