Greg Polson Preview and top three bets for Armidale

Greg Polson - Tuesday September 19

Horses for courses is a well-known maxim in racing and that saying is the basis of our best bets at Armidale on Tuesday.

Advertisement

The statistics reveal 30.9 percent of winners at Armidale since January 2013 had previously won at the course with the figures improving to a 34.3 percent winning strike rate and a profit on investment of 37 percent when the analysis is restricted to horses in the top three in betting.

With the statistics in mind we have settled on three bets on Tuesday.

ELEGIES (Race 7 No 2)

The Rod Hilton-trained Elegies takes the horses to courses theory to a new level with the gelding unbeaten at the Armidale circuit over the last two years.

Elegies has won four races from 22-starts since August 2015 with each of the victories coming over the 1900m at Armidale.

Elegies has had three runs this time in and showed a return to form at Goondiwindi when runner-up last start and is ready to fire back to his favourite track.

BALANTES (Race 5 No 8)

The Melissa Dennett-trained Balantes has won two races in her 16-start career with both the wins coming at Armidale including a victory over 1100m resuming last start jumping a grade to win in class two company carrying 52.5kg after the claim for apprentice Jackson Murphy.

Jackson has the ride again on Tuesday and Balantes will carry the same weight in the same grade of race.

Balantes does step up in distance on Tuesday but it is worth noting her other victory was over the 1400m at Armidale.

FASHION MODEL (Race 6 No 5)

Fashion Model from the Brett Dodson stable is a five-year-old who invariably needs a few runs in a preparation before she finds her best.

A close look at her career statistics backs up that assumption with Fashion Model's first three runs in a preparation producing no wins and just two placings from 13-starts with her record fourth-up and beyond showing four wins and three placings from 10 outings.

Fashion Model is fourth-up on Monday and was an easy winner at the track and distance last preparation.

In with a winnable weight after the 2kg claim for apprentice Cejay Graham and drawn to gets all the favours in the run from barrier two, Fashion Model looks set to return to the winner's list.

Advertisment
More Reading...
Sale Cup Winner Adds to Fastnet Rock Super Weekend
It’s been quite the weekend for the late great champion sire Fastnet Rock with a Cox Plate quinella on Saturday and then on Sunday he produced a new stakes-winner when seven year-old gelding El Rocko captured the $200,000 Listed Sale Cup (1600m).
Hi Yo Sass Bomb Wins G3 on Sunday
Kim Reid bypassed a Group One in favour of Sunday’s Gr.3 Gee and Hickton Funeral Directors Thompson Handicap (1600m) at Trentham with Hi Yo Sass Bomb, a decision that paid dividends when the mare led from the outset to claim her third stakes success.
Transatlantic Takes $1million Five Diamonds Prelude
Transatlantic’s lucrative spring carnival continued at Randwick with an arrogant victory in the $1m Five Diamonds Prelude.
Sires With Winners - Saturday October 25
Here is the full list of 136 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
Yes Yes Yes 3YO Shooting for G2 on Monday
Last year’s Gr.2 James and Annie Sarten Memorial (1400m) set Savaglee up for Group One glory in Christchurch, and Matamata trainer Pam Gerard is hoping to follow a similar blueprint in 2025 with her Yes Yes Yes 3YO Affirmative Action..
Wootton Bassett and Camelot 2YO Colts Win Final French Group Ones
The last French Group I races of their flat season were run on Sunday and Aidan O’Brien produced the winners of both the Group I Criterium International (1600m) and Group I Criterium de Saint Cloud (1800m).
Sires With Winners - Friday October 24
Here is the full list of 60 stallions which had winners throughout Australasia today with winners and result details.
Cream Rises at Trentham
A half-sister by Hello Youmzain (Fr) to dual Group I winner Mustang Valley, exciting filly Cream Tart is set to line up in one of the major three-year-old races over New Zealand Cup Week following her impressive win in Sunday’s Upper Hutt Car Sales LTD Three-Year-Old (1400m) at Trentham.
A Century of NZB National Yearling Sales Success: Cox Plate
Moonee Valley’s A$6m Group One WS Cox Plate (2040m) is known as the weight-for-age championship of Australasia and has been won by many of Australia and New Zealand’s greatest thoroughbreds.
From FNQ To Sha Tin - Aussie Bred Sprinter Wins G2 Premier Bowl
Some horses arrive in Hong Kong with a very different back story - Fresh from winning the $20million The Everest with Ka Ying Rising, David Hayes was back in the winner’s list at Sha Tin on Sunday when Tomodachi Kokoroe won the Group II Premier Bowl (1200m).