It seems almost pre-ordained that in the year legendary sire Galileo chose to leave us, his finest son Frankel may well be ready to step into his shoes after taking a narrow lead over his sire in the latest Leading European Sires List by earnings.
Frankel has a couple of heavy hitters running for him this year in outstanding three year-old colts Adayar and Hurricane Lane, not to mention a Group I winning filly in Snow Lantern, so he may well have the fire power to see it through to the end of the year.
His Northern Hemisphere success in 2021 comes on the back of a ground breaking season in Australia where he has given us three Group I winners in Aussie bred Hungry Heart and Converge as well as imported stayer Mirage Dancer (GB).
Standing at a fee of 175,000 pounds this year, Frankel has the overall stakes-winner to runner strike rate of 15.7%, which is significantly higher than any of our champion Australian sires which explains why there is high demand from local breeders to send mares to him to Southern Hemisphere time.
A recent article published on Racing Post and ANZ Bloodstock News offered a very insightful comment from Banstead Manor nominations manager Shane Horan that should be listened to by Australian breeders.
“As we know, inbreeding to Danehill is quite unsuccessful. Between the northern and southern hemisphere it’s been tried over 7,500 times - and it returns something like 1.1 per cent stakes winners,” Horan said.
"His (Frankel’s) results with inbreeding to Danehill are better than that - around seven per cent, but you give him mares without Danehill and he is significantly better, around 15 per cent.”
So let’s take a look at what the actual statistics are for Frankel when bred to Danehill line mares.
Frankel has sired 75 stakes-winners to date and 17 are Group I winners, but NONE of those elite winners involve a double cross of Danehill.
Frankel over mares with Danehill blood has produced just seven stakes-winners and they are headed by Australian bred Miss Fabulass, who is from champion Australian filly Samantha Miss, a daughter of Redoute’s Choice.
Frankel will undoubtedly sire Group I winners in the future that do have a double cross of Danehill, but why would you spend a fortune on hoping to hit the jackpot with the exception to the rule, rather than to a pattern that increases your chances for success.
So what does make magic for Frankel?
Pivotal and Dubawi appear to be the front runners at this point.
Pivotal mares have produced 14 winners from 18 runners by Frankel including four stakes-winners, three of them Group I winners Hungry Heart, Cracksman and Veracious for 22% SW to runner.
Dubawi mares have produced 10 winners from 15 runners including three stakes-winners, two of them Group I winners Adayar and Dream Castle for 20% SW to runners.
Daylami is another sire worth noting, his daughters producing five winners from six runners and four of them are stakes-winners headed by Group I winner Logician giving him 66% SW to runner.
Shamardal also showing promise with his daughters producing six winners from nine runners including two stakes-winners headed by Aussie G1 winner Converge giving him 22% SW to runner.
Below are pedigrees for Frankel's G1 winners in 2021.
