With the top four in betting carrying 60.5kg or more in the Benchmark 55 Handicap at Goulburn on Monday it's straight to the statistics and they provide some interesting reading.
Reviewing data from January 1, 2013, horses carrying 60.5kg at Goulburn have a winning strike rate of 20 percent and experienced a loss on turnover of 21 percent.
If we restrict the analysis to benchmark 55 races during the test period the winning strike rate drops to 13 percent but the loss on turnover was slightly better at 15.5 percent.
The data includes horses at all odds and when working with this type of data it is always worth including an analysis of how the market expected these horses to perform.
Only analysing horses carrying 60.5kg or more in benchmark 55 races at Goulburn in the top three in betting improves the winning strike rate to 26 percent but still with a significant loss on turnover of 21 percent.
That's a cause for concern for the $3.20 favourite Mister Marmalade (61kg), the second pick Butler Butler (63kg), Third pick Zero To Ten (64.5kg) and I'm Bulletproof (60.5kg) who rounds out the top four in the Goulburn Post Benchmark 55 Handicap (2100m).
The weight statistics suggest punters should look for some value in the race through the likes of the Theresa Bateup-trained Miss Bourban Bar coming off a Queanbeyan placing peaking fourth-up and last-start Canberra Acton winner Spare Ticket who won't spend a penny in the run launching from the inside gate.
The Best Bets
ARRONDISSEMENT (Race 6 No 6)
Trainer Danny Williams and jockey Jason Collett are a formidable combination and combine with Arrondissement in the $150,000 Goulburn Cup Nov 26thBenchmark Handicap (1300m).
Williams was the leading trainer at Goulburn for the last racing season leading in 10 winners with Collett claiming riding honours booting home 13 winners with the bulk of the winners coming from the Williams stable.
Arrondissement is the winner of two her eight career starts to date including a Moruya win on June 26 before a 66-day break between races which told over the latter stages when run down late finishing a close second at Goulburn last start after hitting the front at the 100m mark.
With the run under her belt Arrondissement looks set to go one better on Monday.
MYRISTICA (Race 7 No 6)
The decision by connections keep the John Bateman-trained Myristica to a 1000m second-up looks a winning move when the mare chases back to back wins in the Goulburn Carpet Court Class 3 Handicap (1000m).
Myristica will be having her second run this campaign after winning a benchmark 57 over the 1000m at Goulburn on September 1.
Myristica started her last preparation winning her maiden over the track and distance first-up before struggling when stepped up in distance in her three subsequent runs.
From barrier four on Monday down on the minimum weight Myristica looks well placed to return to the winner's list.
