The Slipper Winner By History and Stats, But Not Today

Slipper Day has been postponed, but this is a great read, so what would have happened? History has a real habit of repeating itself with Grand Final races run at the same of the year, like today’s Golden Slipper, and with a heavy track providing a potential further stats advantage, who’s best placed?

To put the odds in our favour the first thing we need to note is that of the Slipper winners in the past 10 years, none have finished outside the first two at their previous start.

Cull – Ingratiating, Home Affairs, Stay Inside, Rocket Tiger, Captivant, Mallory, Queen Of Wizardry.

That leaves nine.

There have been three heavy track Slippers in the last 10 years (won by, perhaps notably, all fillies):

Kiamichi - won the Magic Night Stakes at her previous start on a heavy track.

She Will Reign – 2^nd in the Reisling Stakes at previous start on a slow track and had won the Inglis Nursery on a heavy track prior.

Mossfun – had won both the Silver Slipper Stakes and Widden Stakes on slow tracks.

So given they’d all won in the wet prior, let’s run with previous proven winning efforts in the wet (or untried).

Profiteer – 1^st Inglis Millenium (Soft)

Anamoe – Untried

Kalishnakov – 1st Mdn (Soft)

O’President  - Won Skyline (Soft), Won Cbury Mdn (Heavy)

Glistening – Untried

Four Moves Ahead – 1^st Sweet Embrace (Soft), 1^st 2Yo Hcp (Heavy)

Cull – Shaquero, Artorius, Swift Witness

So we are left with:

Profiteer, Anamoe (untried wet), Kalishnikov, O’President, Glistening (untried wet), Four Moves Ahead

Odds each horse (at time of print) - $4, $18, $41, $10, $61, $5.5

Stake to win minimum $100 each horse - $25, $6, $3, $10, $2, $19 = $65

So we can spend $65 to make $100 right there.

But if we want to cop a tough opinion* – Profiteer’s peaked already and overraced last start, while the market suggests Kalishnikov and Glistening are not good enough.

Which leaves us with Anamoe (untried wet), O’President and Four Moves Ahead.

It sounds too easy.

Good luck with one of the great day’s racing.

* All care taken, no responsibility accepted! :)