Top bets from Clinton Payne for Saturday

Clinton Payne - Saturday September 16

It's the time of the year when I start to spread my punting wings and I'm keen to get involved at Flemington and Randwick on Saturday.

Advertisement

JORDA (Flemington Race 1 No 1)
Classy filly that was most impressive when resuming from a long spell with an unlucky third behind Pariah in the San Domenico Stakes. Resuming from an 11-month spell, Jorda was unable to secure clear running from around the 400m to inside the 200m. Over the last 100m of the race she went stride for stride with Chauffer to the line and he ran the quickest last 200m of the race. In my opinion if she gets clear running from the top of the straight, she pushes Pariah. On Saturday, she comes back to fillies’ grade, only carries 2kg above the minimum and her opposition largely consists of Melbourne’s B-graders. If she handles the straight, she’ll take beating.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2.90 @ CrownBet

MR SNEAKY (Flemington Race 3 No 12)
I love backing classy and progressive four-year-olds when they step into black-type grade for the first time and this bloke’s profile is exactly what I look for. He scored two good wins at the back end of his last campaign before he produced a Leyland Brothers performance at Scone prior to the Scone Guineas, forcing his late scratching. Luckily for those involved in the horse he came through his fence jumping expedition unscathed and made his return at Caulfield a fortnight ago when indicating he’s gone to another level since coming back, scoring as easier win as you’d see. Up to Listed grade on Saturday, he drops from 60kg to 54kg, and he’s drawn to get the right run again while his two main dangers in the market have drawn out. Betting up.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.80 @ PalmerBet

CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (Randwick Race 5 No 2)
If this filly had drawn favourably in her first two runs this preparation the formguide would read 1x1x11. The filly and her jockey Tye Angland have been victims of bad gates, forcing the jockey to ride the daughter of Not A Single Doubt more conservatively than desired before hitting the line stronger than her opponents. Again, on Saturday, Champagne Cuddles got no favours when the barrier draw was done but two factors have me convinced she will be saluting in the Group II Tea Rose Stakes. Firstly, she steps up to 1400m which will suit her down to the ground if the way she’s hit the line in the two runs this prep is anything to go by. Secondly, the addition of fillies like Pandemonium, Sweet Deal and Acqume in this will give us a more solidly run race which will aid Champagne Cuddles’ cause. I think she wins this week.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.50 @ William Hill ($4 Price Pump), PalmerBet

HARTNELL (Flemington Race 7 No 1)
This is my no-brainer bet on Saturday. He’s clearly the second-best horse in the land and his first-up win in the P.B Lawrence indicated he’s come back as well as ever. I really love the fact that the stable has allowed him four weeks between that run and this second-up target. His trainer James Cummings has tasted plenty of success over the past couple of seasons adopting four weeks between runs with horses. Then I think back to Hartnell’s past Flemington performances. He made Jameka look second rate when winning the Turnbull Stakes, her run prior to her easy Caulfield Cup victory and he ran third in the Melbourne Cup last year when he didn’t stay. The more I bet the more I win.
BET: WIN
ODDS $2 @ Ladbrokes (Enhanced odds)

MISSILE CODA (Randwick Race 9 No 15)
This is another horse that fits into the Mr Sneaky category – a classy horse that has plenty of room to move in the handicap. She’s a three-time winner from four starts and her last victory in a benchmark 72 midweek at Canterbury was awesome. She was scratched at the barriers since then at Canterbury on August 30 and went back to the trials to be cleared by stewards, allowing the stable to keep her up to the mark. It’s a solid race on Saturday but this mare has Stakes class written all over her and if she gets a run she’ll be mighty hard to hold out.
BET: WIN
ODDS $4.20 @ Ladbrokes ($4.80 Odds Boost), CrownBet, Luxbet, William Hill ($5.50 Price Pump), Unibet

Advertisment
More Reading...
Three Straight Stakes Wins For Cool Aza Beel’s Cool Archie
With no two-year-old currently performing better in Queensland, the Chirs and Corey Munce trained Cool Archie continued his outstanding form, taking out the $1m Group 2 BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m), his third consecutive black type victory.
Niance Overcomes Serious Injury to Claim Stakes Victory
Exciting New Zealand-bred mare Niance has bounced back from a serious injury and picked up right where she left off last spring, collecting her third consecutive black-type win in Saturday’s A$175,000 Listed Bel Esprit Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield.
Hat-Trick for Trelawney Stud Blueblood Filly
Well-related Trelawney Stud filly Madiyya signed off her three-year-old season with a third straight win, this time over 1600m in the A$150,000 Rod Griffiths Handicap at Caulfield on Saturday.
First Local Win As New Endeavour (IRE) Records Stakes Success
While it may have taken the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott trained New Endeavour (IRE) a while to record his first Australian success, connections were rewarded for their patience as the 5yo dominated under Tim Clark to win the Group 3 BRC Lord Mayor’s Cup (1800m) at Eagle Farm.
When in Doubt Back a Frankel!
The $200,000 Listed ATC Lord Mayor’s Cup (2000m ) at Rosehill on Saturday attracted a competitive field of 14 stayers, the bulk of them imports and when you strike an open race like that it’s often wise to follow this piece of advice – when in doubt back a Frankel!
Bright Future for El Roca 3YO
Owner-trainer-breeder Kylie Little believes she might have a promising stayer on her hands with Eagle Rock, who left maiden ranks with an emphatic performance in Saturday’s Matt Edwards-Lime Group Mile (1600m) at Te Rapa.
Another Win for Smart Exceedance Filly
Apprentice Liam Kauri has continued a winning association with the Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott stable by partnering their smart three-year-old Tristar to victory in the Ambient Group 3YO (1100m) at Te Rapa, his second victory aboard the filly from just two rides.
Kiwi Bred Campaldino Wins G3 for Darby
Promising New Zealand-bred stayer Campaldino passed his biggest test with flying colours at Eagle Farm on Saturday, stepping up to stakes company and adding the A$200,000 Gr.3 Living Turf Queen Elizabeth II Cup (2400m) to his winning sequence.
Ears Back Wins Listed Stakes at Wanganui
A two-race North Island campaign has ended on a career-defining high for Ears Back and her Rangiora trainer John Blackadder, who scored their first black-type win in Saturday’s Listed AGC Training Stakes (1600m) at Wanganui.
Stakes Potential for New Hello Youmzain Winner
Late-season black type is on the radar for Platinum Diamond after an impressive upset victory in Saturday’s Full Circle Appearance Medicine 2YO (1200m) at Wanganui.