Favoured runners appear set to dominate at Rosehill on Saturday but there is usually at least one upset result and I'm confident I've found the one.
NAT KING CU (Rosehill Race 3 No 6)
Bookies continue to send this rejuvenated nine-year-old out at big odds and once again we can get set for a big result. Jumped from 1500m to 2000m around here two weeks back and went down fighting when beaten three-quarters of a length into third behind odds-on pop Alward. Meets that galloper 2kg better at the weights this time around yet we can get $22 (PowerPlay) compared with the red odds about Alward. Gate one ensures he lands in the right spot and considering he has finished in the money at his past five starts (all city grade) – he simply appears the value play.
BET: EACH-WAY
ODDS $18 @ Sportsbet ( $22 Power Play)
ADDICTIVE NATURE (Rosehill Race 4 No 3)
With a healthy result pending on the win of Assimilate in the Ming Dynasty, I was cursing the name Addictive Nature when Bjorn Baker's robust three-year-old defied a late burst to win by a nose in the Group III contest. But upon reflection, the best horse appeared to win. Did the work up front in a fast-run affair yet managed to shake off all challengers, including Assimilate which had been saved-up for the final shot at him. The 1500m around here looks ideal at this stage of his campaign, there should be enough pace in the race to make it a genuine test and under that scenario, I want to be on the classy and tough Addictive Nature. No cursing his name this time – unless he loses.
BET: WIN
ODDS – $2.90 @ Ladbrokes ($3.40 Odds Boost), Luxbet
DEPLOY (Rosehill Race 5 No 3)
The gelding of Deploy unleashed a true beast and I am confident he can continue on his winning way. Has had eight starts since given the snip for six wins, a second and a Group III fourth. Drawn ideally, he has the early tactical pace to settle right on speed and with a strong kick combined with a fighting spirit – it's no surprise his strike-rate has soared. This is a big test, but with fitness on his side and a likely break on his main rivals turning for home – I am sticking with the beast that is Deploy.
BET: WIN
ODDS $5 @ Bet365
TANGO RAIN (Rosehill Race 8 No 4)
Has come back in great form and is only lightly raced so has upside over his main rivals. Blessed with early pace, that always helps on a genuine good surface at Rosehill. Combine a soft gate and there are already plenty of compelling reasons to have a crack at this four-year-old. Will carry 3kg less than he did when doing plenty of early work and holding off a promising one in Marsupial around the 1100m here last time. They will be coming from everywhere late but I'm confident Tango Rain will hang on for another win.
BET: WIN
ODDS $3.20 @ William Hill ($3.60 Price Pump)
EBENOS (Rosehill Race 9 No 7)
This race profiles well for Peter and Paul Snowden's in-form four-year-old. Eye-catching return around Canterbury behind the smart Nictock then good thing beaten second-up there behind Golden Shoes when badly held-up in the straight – Malahat ran third in that race and has since won impressively. Latest fourth behind Comin' Through was also rock solid after settling last in a leader-dominated affair. Big field with an expected strong tempo should play right into the hands of Ebenos – and we've got Kerrin McEvoy to do the steering. Good bet.
BET: WIN
ODDS $6.50 @ William Hill ($7.50 Price Pump)
